The Tories will surely find a way for BoJo to remain an MP
it is very hard to see any outcome for the next general election that does not involve the Tories losing a lot of seats. Even if we take the most favourable current poll for Sunak’s party, R&W on Monday, the Tories are 12% behind. At GE2019 the blues had a 12% GB national vote lead so in terms of swing there has been a 12% CON-LAB one.
My guess is that there will be more of a swing back to the Tories in the next 18 months but it is hard to see the party being in a position to remain in power.
My calculation is that in order to stay in power the Tories will need to have a GB national vote lead of 5% which seems very remote.
So in this context a lot of big Tory names are going to be ex-MPs. It is very hard to forecast Johnson’s Uxbridge Ruislip remaining blue. My guess is that a safer seat will be found for him and that he will continue to be an MP. He’ll get widely criticized for not remaining in Uxbridge but Johnson has a way of dealing with these things.