Continuing our monthly tracker day is leadership approval – tracking since @RishiSunak became Prime Minister.

As it stands, there are ten points between the Prime Minister and @Keir_Starmer… (1/2) pic.twitter.com/ww3WTeseby

— Deltapoll (@DeltapollUK) January 20, 2023

This looks like a small improvement for the PM and DeltaPoll’s figures are broadly in line with other firms.

Given the very high proportion of CON GE2019 saying don’t know on voting intention this is probably a better measure of the current state of play than the voting polls. As I have been arguing the Tories are not as far behind as the voting intention numbers might suggest because of this factor.

The challenge facing Sunak, though, remains huge and remember that at GE2019 the Tories had a GB vote lead of 12%. They are a long way off getting to level pegging.

I’m still very much influenced by GE1992 when John Major managed to hang on and do far better than the polling.

I still think that an overall majority is going to be very tough for LAB to achieve but Starmer is highly likely to become the next PM.

Mike Smithson