It all depends on how many CON losses

All of the discussion after the Chester by-election about whether LAB can get a majority is irrelevant to whether SKS moves into Number 10. The big issue is the Tory seat total.

Sunak or his successor will have to relinquish power if his party loses enough seats so that they don’t have an effective majority taking into account, of course, a possible arrangement with the DUP. Their problem is that the Tories would find it harder than LAB to work out arrangements with other parties if they fell short.

If we assume Sinn Fein once again not taking up their Westminster seats then the Tories will likely need 316 MPs to stay in government. That means keeping net losses to 46 seats or fewer.

If they don’t Sunak, assuming he’s still there, will have to go to the Palace and advise the King that Starmer be invited to try to form a government.

Clearly if it is tight there will will be an enormous amount of horse trading so Starmer could survive an initial confidence vote.

One thing to note is that it is possible that Starmer could become PM even if the Tories are still the largest party or had the most votes. This is because he’d find it easier than the Tories to put together some form of coalition.

Mike Smithson