The betting chart shows the movements on the general election outcome that have taken place over the last 6-months.

As can be seen a hung parliament and a Labour majority are now running head to head with a Conservative majority down as a 17% chance. Given the recent very strong polling for LAB then it might be argued that the party should be favourite to win an overall majority..

There seems to be the view that the current polls with a LAB leads getting into the low 30s won’t survive and in the end there will be a huge turn back to the Tories. Maybe. Maybe not.

This is a very hard call to make at this stage and a lot rests on the shoulders of Sunak. Will he be able to transform the Tory Party once again into a credible party of government?

Having watched him closely today I wonder whether he has got the job too early and would have been better prepared if he had more experience.

Mike Smithson