Remember Eastbourne in 1990

So far there has been no reaction on the Johnson exit date markets to the two by-elections that are due to take place on June 23rd. It is almost as if the likely Tory losses are factored in,

But what if the Tory performance is far far worse then anything that is being envisaged? Could that send the parliamentary party into a panic?

In many ways Westminster by-elections are much closer to home for MPs than the locals and since last year’s two by-elections losses to the LDs a lot of water has passed under the bridge. Johnson is in nothing like as strong a position as he was last year.

Two by-elections on the same night adds to the risk.

At Shropshire North and Chesham & Amersham the Tory shares were in the 30s which was not that much different from other by-elections losses in the past.

But what if Tory shares on June 23rd drop into the teens in both seats? That will send out an awful message.

In 1990 the Tory share dropping 19% to 41% in Eastbourne was enough to trigger the demise of Maggie.

Mike Smithson