On Smarkets its a 97% chance there won’t be one

The one British political betting market where we will see an outcome very soon is the Smarkets one on their being a CON poll lead in March. These are the market rules:

This market relate to the headline, rounded percentage voting figures for UK or GB general election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will be settled as a winner if any of the following polling companies publicly report a headline voting intention lead for the Conservative party: Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG. The poll must be released between 1 March 2022 and 31 March 2022 (inclusive) to qualify. Any tie for the lead will not count, only a clear lead will resolve the market.

This did get very close with the Kantar dead heat but that was not sufficient to push the Tories over the line.

Anyway I am pretty certain that Smarkets will be putting up an April market which might be more challenging for the Tories given the latest Partygate developments.

Mike Smithson