Who’ll come out of May 5th best – Johnson or Starmer?
This lunchtime the Tory campaigning expert, Lord Hayward, held his annual local elections briefing ahead of the May 5th elections.
His graphic above sets out the range of different elections that are taking place and arguably the most significant are the local council elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In both cases the outcomes could impact on their continuation as part of the United Kingdom.
The expectation is that LAB will do well in the London boroughs which should help Starmer. But how will the totality of the results impact on his party.
There has been much talk of the outcomes on May 5th possibly being a trigger for a Conservative leadership election? That, I suggest, depends on how poorly the party is perceived to have done.
Most of the English council seats up were last fought in 2018. This is what happened:
So overall this is not good territory for the Tories.