One of the more interesting bets that will see an outcome this month is the above from Smarkets on whether the Tories are are going to get a poll lead in March.

I know a couple of PB Punters who have bet on the Tores doing and it has been fun to watch them as they see the possibility of another poll coming out and they can speculate whether this one will be the one.

At the weekend their hopes were on Opinium which has recently changed its methodology so as to make it more likely than other firms that they will be showing the Tories in a good position. Well, Saturday night came and went with the pollster having a 2% lead.

Then there was the buildup to the weekly Redfield& Wilton poll which comes on Mondays at 5:00 p.m. The latest finding is a 3% LAB margin. There should be two more surveys from the firm during March.

I’d say that the odds are about right.

These are the market rules:

This market relate to the headline, rounded percentage voting figures for UK or GB general election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will be settled as a winner if any of the following polling companies publicly report a headline voting intention lead for the Conservative party: Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG. The poll must be released between 1 March 2022 and 31 March 2022 (inclusive) to qualify. Any tie for the lead will not count, only a clear lead will resolve the market. Any trades or bets placed after a Conservative poll lead is announced will be void. This will include, but not necessarily be restricted to, being reported by a verified Twitter account.

I reckon that the Tories have a 50% chance doing this.

Mike Smithson