But could there be an earlier general election?

My only worry about betting on a Johnson exit in 2024 or later is that he might just call a general election next year. This would make sense and fits with the pattern of previous PMs who did not have to operate within the confines of the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Getting rid of that legacy from the coalition is not far off and choosing the date would be entirely in Johnson’s own hands.

In the past PMs have not wanted to be cornered in by waiting till near the end of their term before going to the country. Generally, the year beforehand has been the chosen date. Just think Eden at GE1955 or Maggie at GE1983 and GE1987. There was also “Supermac” at GE1959. The experience is that those PMs who wait till the final possible year end up getting defeated.

Blair followed the same pattern at GE2001 and GE2005

Wilson went early in June 1970 and suffered what was the biggest shock since the war. This was the only election in modern times that saw a party with a working majority being replaced by another party also working majority.

At the current odds 2023 for the next general election looks a good bet.

Mike Smithson