Smarkets have a betting market

One of the smarkets betting markets that has seen a fair amount of interest this week is the above one on whether petrol will move to £2 a litre in the UK at some stage during 2020.

Things seem to have shot up quite sharply over the past week probably in a reaction to the events in Ukraine and levels appear to be the highest ever. But the price of a litre is still a long way off £2.

You have to factor in here the Government trimming the levels of duty if prices get too high.

These are the market rules:

This market relates to whether the average weekly UK retail pump price for a litre of petrol will reach £2 at any point before the end of 2022. This market will be settled according to the UK government Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) data (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/oil-and-petroleum-products-weekly-statistics). If any data point reported as being before 1 January 2023 under the ULSP pump price column equals or surpasses £2, this market will be settled for yes. Otherwise, the market will be settled for no.

Having backed a winner with the turnout in the Erdington by-election I might have a small punt here on Yes.

Mike Smithson