Let’s stop this fetish over VI polling – these are the numbers that matter
One of the things that makes me so angry about the way the MSM covers polling is their obsession with voting intention. Opinion polls are at their best when they attempt to do just that and seek to find out opinions and their worst when those sampled are asked to predict future actions
Voting intention firstly requires those polls to establish whether those sampled are actually in a position to participate in an election. Will they be registered to vote when an election happens? Then samples are asked to assess whether or not they will be taking part in an event at a future date maybe years ahead. After that they are asked to predict how they will use that their vote. These all add to the uncertainty.
If polls are a way of testing the political climate then it far far better to highlight leader ratings like responses to approval questions where Opinium has led the field. There is also the preferred PM question where currently Johnson has been behind for months.
In the US the dominant feature of polling is the President’s approval or favourability rating. The reason why Biden is seen as being in trouble at the moment is that these numbers have slumped markedly. Only when the two main party nominees are decided does voting intention become more important.