Tonight’s Southend W result will be compared with 2016 Batley & Spen
Thankfully we do not have too many by-elections being held because the sitting MP has been murdered. Back in 1990 other parties did NOT stand aside after the killing by the Provisional IRA of Eastbourne MP, Ian Gow, and the LDs went on to take the seat in the October 1990 by-election.
In 2016 following the murder of LAB MP Jo Cox we had the Batley & Spen by-election with CON/LD/GRN and UKIP all not putting up candidates allowing LAB to retain the seat with a massive majority as seen above. Essentially most non-LAB supporters didn’t vote.
Today’s Southend West by-election is to fill the vacancy created by murder of David Amess and comes at a time of some real political difficulty for the government. As with B&S the main parties have stood aside although in this case UKIP has put up a candidate who appears to have been working hard.
Inevitably the level of turnout and outcome will be used as an indicator of how popular Johnson’s government is. The Tories will be helped by the fact that the main campaign against them is from UKIP which will surely limit the numbers of LAB and LDs supporters participating.
I don’t think I’ll be staying up for the result. Essentially a CON share much less than LAB at Batley & Spen is not good news for Number 10.