The Smarkets betting exchange has just introduced a new market on whether or not there will be an electoral pact at the next election. The firm has defined a pact as Labour standing aside in five or more GB seats.

I’ve not bet on this yet but when the odds are right my money will go one no pact actually happening. It is just too much for Labour and the LDs and others to be able to reach an agreement that would maximise the anti-CON vote in selected seats. This is too big a deal for the parties concerned and the LDs would be very reluctant to compromise their appeal to possible former CON voters.

But all the signs are that what will appear like a pact will happen anyway in key marginal seats. Just look at the differing performances of LAB and the LDs in last month’s two by-elections. In old Bexley Labour were seen by voters as the main challenger to the Tories and its vote went up with the LD share going down.

Contrast that with North Shropshire two weeks later where the LAB vote was markedly down but the LDs soared taking both GE2019 LAB and CON voters.

By my reckoning, the Tories just need to drop 47 seats for Johnson or his successor to lose power and handover. In that situation, it does not require much just token campaigning activity by LAB in seats where the LDs could make a gain and vice versa where LAB are the main threat to Tory incumbents.

All this could happen without any agreement or even conversations between Starmer and Davey. In many seats it will be blindingly obvious to voters which way those opposed to the Tories should vote.

Mike Smithson