In the betting the money goes on Johnson surviving 2022
After a period last month when the betting was that Johnson will be out in 2022 the money has now moved back to him surviving till 2024 or later.
This was a very active market in the run-up to the holidays when there was one development after another, including a massive by-election defeat, that looked bad for Johnson’s survival chances. Over the holiday this has moved back and as can be seen a 2022 exit is now rated as a 34% chance.
It is true to say, though, that the political betting markets in the past months have been very pro-Boris. For long periods the Tory party was odds-on to win all four of the by-elections when in fact only one, Old Sidcup, was won by the blues. It was odds on-favourite for long periods in Chesham & Amersham, Batley & Spen, Old Sidcup and North Shropshire.
Of particular relevance to me is that for almost five weeks of the Chesham & Amersham campaign, Betfair had the Tories as 94%+ chance.
On the above Johnson exit market a 2022 exit is heading towards being a value bet.