Could Reform’s Tice surprise us on Thursday?
I’ve just come across a BBC News report on Thursday’s Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election which has the remarkable claim by ReformUK that the party has knocked on 90% of doors in the seat. I find this hard to believe because it is a massive task for any party to achieve that level of penetration in a Westminster by-election.
This is from the BBC News report:
Reform UK – formerly the Brexit Party – may no longer have Nigel Farage at the helm, but new leader Richard Tice is hoping to park his tanks on the area’s well-trimmed Tory lawns just the same. Brandishing a smartphone app that claims to record the voting preferences of everyone they canvass, party workers say they have knocked on 90% of doors…”Do you prefer the photo, or the real thing?” asks Mr Tice, as he hands residents a 20-page booklet with a glossy photograph of himself on the front. It’s his opener to a well-rehearsed charm offensive that includes “saving our boilers”, a referendum on the government’s net zero plans that he dubs “net stupid”, cutting taxes, and zero tolerance to illegal immigration.
Although I have a small bet on Tice at 100/1 I also have another bet at 6/4 that he’ll save his deposit by getting more than 5% of the vote.
We know that Tice is a seasoned campaigner in strong Leave seats and at GE2019 chalked up a very respectable 25.8% share in Hartlepool.
I don’t think as party leader he would have put himself forward for this by-election unless he was going to back it with an effective campaign and he could have a significant effect on the final result. I certainly expect him to get more than 5%.