The chart illustrates what has been a quite remarkable recovery since Starmer became leader on April 4th last year. He’s taken his party from a polling deficit of 26% to being just ahead in several current polls.

A lot of this, of course, has been about the detoxification of the party from the disastrous leadership of his predecessor who led Labour at GE2019 to its worst result since 1933.

Corbyn undermined so much and the polling at the last election showed it was him who was the main driver of BJ’s landslide victory. Now Corbyn’s gone and effectively banished the question is whether there are more detoxification gains or has the recovery under Starmer gone as far as it can.

The former DPP has been helped of late by BJ himself whose personal desire to stand by his mate, Owen Paterson, and then U-turn have been the worst decisions of his premiership. He looks a much lesser figure now than a month ago.

Smarkets are now taking bets on who will be PM on January 1st 2023. BJ is rated as a 70% chance – I think that overstates it.

Mike Smithson