Laat week the innovative betting exchange, Smarkets, had a market for a by-election for Hetton on Sunderland council which appeared part of a strategy to have regular betting markets that would be resolved in a matter of days rather than years.

Well the firm has followed through with a market on this week’s Cranleigh E by election for Waverley Borough in Surrey. This is a straight fight between the Tories and the LDs who are now the odds on favourite.

Looking at what happened there in May it is hard to argue against an LD win EXCEPT that this is Tory conference week and voting will take place the day after BoJo’s big speech.

I can’t decide.

Mike Smithson