Thursday showed a big divide between the politics of Remainia and Leaverstan

We have not got a date yet but the Chesham and Amersham by-election looks set to be the next big political betting event and the Smarkets chart above shows the latest trend in the betting which has the Tories with a 91.7% chance.

Inevitably the Tory victory in Hartlepool and the successes in the local elections have given the party and its backers a lot of confidence as they face the coming defence of the Commons seat that had been held by the late Cheryl Gillan.

The constituency, however, is in a part of the country which voted Remain where generally the Tories struggled on Thursday. In Buckinghamshire the party had net losses of 10 seats and although it held onto the main County Council divisions in Chesham and Amersham it was a close thing.

On top of that there were elections for town and parish councils and the Amersham TC results had the Tories taking seven seats to the LDs who got eight.

The latest approval ratings from Opinium have leavers giving Johnson a net plus of 26% but a net minus of 40% amongst remainers.

My view is that the value bet at current levels is to lay the Tories which is what I’ve done.