Some numbers behind the headline figures

The chart is taken from the detailed data in today’s Populus Poll for the Times and shows current voting intentions linked to what respondents said they did at the 2005 General Election.

It focuses solely on those who voted last time – a segment that, surely, must be more likely to vote at the next general election than those, who for whatever reason, were non-voters.

The Tories are retaining 97% of their 2005 vote and are also picking one in six of the 2005 Labour voters and one in ten Lib Dems. Those look like fairly chunky proportions.

Labour, with less than two out of three 2005 saying they plan to do so again, has its smallest retention figure for months. Although it has won some 2005 Lib Dem votes this is more than balanced by Labour 2005 voters switching in the other direction. The Lab switchers to BNP, whilst very small, could also be an irritant.

The Lib Dems see one of the highest retention figures for months as well as a net gain from Labour.

ICM also publish similar data and the numbers from their weekend poll are in the same ball-park as Populus.

Betting markets for the next general election.