After his first big speech since leaving the White House Trump has now now moved to be clear favourite on the Smarkets exchange to get the GOP nomination for the WH2024 race.

There was little doubt after his performance at the CPAC conference weekend that as far as he is concerned he is the major force within his party. For better or worse if the route in the party to getting preferment requires repeating Trump’s big election lies about WH2020 then so be it.

The big question is how long will this last and will his ascendancy survive the 2022 midterm elections when the party should be hoping to take back the House and possibly the Senate?

First Trump has got to navigate his way though perhaps half a dozen possible big legal cases several of which could leave him with a criminal record. What’s happened to former French President Sarkozy sets an uncomfortable precedent for Trump.

I would not bet on Trump.