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This battle is far from over

We are just starting to see serious analysis of the Trump campaign following his party’s virtual convention this week. The New York Times had this key observation of the Trump campaign approach:

The Republican convention this week marked an extraordinary effort to recast President Trump’s image on issues of race and gender, with the party stretching to find African-Americans who would testify that Mr. Trump is not racist, and lining up women to describe him as sensitive and empathetic — qualities he rarely displays in public….And it was done with a crucial political goal in mind: making a divisive leader appear more palatable to white moderate voters, who have turned against the Trump-led G.O.P. in recent elections, while also trying to peel away some nonwhite voters from Joe Biden.”

It will take a few days before we get some new polling and all eyes will be on the cross-breaks particularly for white women. Can Trump do enough to win back this key group that has moved away from him in the past few months?

The point, of course, is that there was a clear strategy on display over the four nights. The campaign recognises where it needs to make up ground so the focus was on that.

A big issue overall for both campaigns is that although Trump’s core base might be smaller there is a huge lead when pollsters test how enthusiastic voters are.

Punters, as we have noted here before, are much more bullish about Trump’s prospects in spite of the polling.

Mike Smithson