CONSERVATIVES 43% (-2)
LABOUR 32% (nc)
LIB DEMS 16% (+2)

Was this predicted by the betting markets?

The January YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is out and shows a small reduction in the Tory share and a small increase for the Lib Dem on compared with the last survey from the pollster the Sunday before last. The change is well within the margin of error so we can’t read too much into it.

But do they never learn? This is being reported by the main news agencies with comparisons on the last YouGov poll that the Telegraph commissioned in mid-December while Brown Bounce II was still driving the narrative. Our comparisons above are with the Sunday Times January poll the weekend before last. Grrrrrrrrrrrr

The poll itself hardly gets a mention in the Telegraph which must have spent a fair bit of money on it. Perhaps it wasn’t sensational enough? That’s a pity because the paper’s series with YouGov has been going on for some time and there are some regular other questions where it is interesting to track the responses. These include the one referred to on the previous thread – the forced choice asking whether people would prefer a Cameron government to a Brown one.

We’ll have to wait until the full data is published before we get those numbers.

Yesterday we reported that the PB’s “The Money Says Index” had also fallen back just a touch – maybe punters were sensing the public mood.

Whatever this latest poll reinforces the broad picture that we’ve seen from all the pollsters in the past three weeks – their numbers are all pointing to a Cameron government with a substantial majority.

Later today we should see the Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism Index which is proving itself to be a reasonable polling prediction.