I have resigned from Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative Whip.

I cannot stand by as good, loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled.

I have spoken to the PM and my Association Chairman to explain.

I remain committed to the One Nation values that drew me into politics. pic.twitter.com/kYmZHbLMES

— Amber Rudd (@AmberRuddUK) September 7, 2019

NEW: Amber Rudd tells the Sunday Times she resigned because there is “no evidence” that Boris Johnson is really seeking a deal with the EU

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 7, 2019

NEW: Amber Rudd quits the cabinet telling Sunday Times that Johnson’s purge is “political vandalism” and “an assault on decency and democracy”

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 7, 2019

Following on from last night’s four point lead with Survation today we saw a Panelbase with a Tory lead of just three percent.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 31% (+10)
LAB: 28% (-3)
LDEM: 19% (+6)
BREX: 15% (-4)
GRN: 2% (-3)

via @Panelbase, 05 – 06 Sep
**Chgs. w/ May**

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 7, 2019

But tonight YouGov and Opinium see much larger Conservative leads

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 17% (+2)
BREX: 13% (-3)

via @OpiniumResearch, 04 – 06 Sep
Chgs. w/ 23 Aug

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 7, 2019

YouGov for the Sunday Times
(fieldwork Thurs/Fri)

Con 35% (-)
Lab 21% (-4)
LDem 19% (+3)
Brexit 12% (+1)

A week of turmoil and Johnson seems to be defying gravity

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 7, 2019

So no one accuse the pollsters of herding! For me the most interesting aspect from the supplementaries released so far Opinium is that Boris Johnson’s personal ratings are falling, as we saw with Survation last night.

Opinium found that ‘Johnson’s personal ratings have been dented after his bruising week in the Commons. Now only just over a third (36%) think he would be the best prime minister, down from 41% last month.’

Falling leadership ratings are usually a prelude to a fall in voting intention figures a few weeks later. Losing your brother and a cabinet minister in short order will have an impact. I would expect other cabinet ministers and sub cabinet minister to follow Rudd. If Boris Johnson brings the Queen into the political arguments over breaking the law then I expect his ratings to fall further. Instead of trying to heal and unite the Tory party Boris Johnson splitting it could things get messy for him, especially if he quits rather than follow the law.

There is no, repeat no, Tory majority without Guildford, a seat Tory, save for one term, since 1910. If this is correct, and the prime minister genuinely has so little understanding of electoral geography, then the Conservatives are truly lost. pic.twitter.com/6L8xKfrVSC

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) September 7, 2019

There’s polls from Deltapoll and BritainElects due as well tonight, but due to a long and cold day at the Test match, I probably will not be able to cover those polls tonight.

TSE

Update – ComRes/BritainElects polling

#Excl
Westminster voting intention:
"A General Election is held before the 31st of October 2019, and Brexit has not been delivered":

CON: 30%
LAB: 27%
LDEM: 21%
BREX: 14%
GRN: 3%

via @ComRes, 04 – 06 Sephttps://t.co/prvtajnXc4 pic.twitter.com/LZH0nMCSf2

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 7, 2019

#Excl
Westminster voting intention:
"A General Election is held after extending the Brexit deadline beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 28%
CON: 26%
LDEM: 20%
BREX: 17%
GRN: 4%

via @ComRes, 04 – 06 Sephttps://t.co/prvtaj6lNu pic.twitter.com/eHjJc1DToI

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 7, 2019