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Blow for Jim Murphy as first Scottish poll following his election has LAB trailing by 24 points

December 22nd, 2014

Survation Record poll shows scale of his challenge

With LAB’s fortunes on May 7th so tied up with how the party performs in what was its Scottish stronghold there’s a big blow this morning with the publication of the December Scotland poll for the Daily Record.

If this were to be repeated at the General Election then the red team would almost be wiped out north of the border and the SNP would take in excess of 50 of Scotland’s 59 seats.

It goes almost without saying that losing 30+ MPs in Scotland makes LAB’s overall General Election challenge even greater and would almost certainly rule out the possibility of an overall majority. It would also put the SNP in a very strong position at Westminster in discussions over the post election government.

There is a smidgeon of positive news for LAB in the poll as the Record reports:

“…30 per cent of Labour voters and 37 per cent of Tory voters said: “ The Scottish Labour Party will be more successful now Jim Murphy has been elected leader”. Only three per cent of Labour voters and eight per cent of Tories said that the party would be less successful.

There is also evidence of a soft side to the SNP vote. Asked if they would seriously consider voting for another party 21 per cent of those intending to vote SNP say they would seriously consider voting Labour”

Previous Scottish polls with figures like these have failed to budge the Scottish single seat markets. Last week the SNP was only down as favourite to win 4 seats currently held by LAB. This suggests a lack of confidence on the ground.

The next big Scottish polling news will be the promised Lord Ashcroft single seats surveys with their two-stage voting question that asks voters to focus on the constituency and the candidates who might stand. Will incumbency temper some of the SNP surge and could we see tactical pro-union voting?

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble