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Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

November 26th, 2014

No surprise there then but a big challenge for the coalition

The chart is based on aggregate data for Populus polls last month and is broadly in line with what we seen from other pollsters. Those currently saying they’ll vote UKIP have the most negative views about the recovery.

Given that both coalition partners will be trying to claim credit for what’s happened this message is going to be hard to get across to the biggest group of swing voters.

The Tories used the Rochester campaign to test some of the messaging that we are likely to see next May though clearly that was a by-election when the government of the country was not at stake at GE15 it it will be very different.

The art is not to over-claim but try to get over that they know what they are doing and any change could be dangerous. They have a “plan” as ministers keep on saying.

The Tories must be encouraged by the way that Osborne’s ratings have progressed so much in the past year but whether he is able to find the formula that resonates with Kipper switchers is far from clear.

The Labour rhetoric is likely to acknowledge that there has been a recovery but for the few not the many.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble