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If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

August 21st, 2014

There’s absolutely no sign of that happening yet

The chart shows the monthly average proportion of all 2010 LDs in the twice-weekly Populus polls since the series started in July 2013.

So far, as the chart shows, this group of switchers (“Labour’s electoral clutch” as they’ve been described) are remaining solid and are propping up the red team’s poll ratings.

In yesterday’s Ashcroft polling of the marginals the level of switching was higher than in national polls and, interestingly, it increased when the second, seat specific, question was asked.

There are so many uncertainties about GE2015 – that LAB in the key marginals will be buttressed by large numbers of 2010 LD voters is not one of them.

Mike Smithson

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