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Mr Rentoul might not like this but the polling shows that Ed Milband has a special appeal to 2010 LD-LAB switchers

August 4th, 2014

In two massive rounds of polling the numbers have barely shifted

In an article last month the Indy on Sunday political editor and Blair biographer, John Rentoul, wrote:

“My view, and this cannot be based on opinion polls, is that when the voters come to choose they will shy away from the prospect of Miliband as prime minister, just as they shied away from Neil Kinnock in 1992.”

But John the unique polling resources that are available to us ahead of GE2015 mean that we do have the hard numbers on which such assertions can be supported or refuted. The scale of what Lord Ashcroft is producing at regular intervals from the marginals and the way that the data is presented allows us to isolate key sub-groups of voters and establish their views with a degree of confidence.

The chart above is based on two 14k samples from CON-held LAB-CON marginals which were polled in April and in July.

This is supported by other large sample polling that Lord Ashcroft has produced in the last year or so.

    What this is all supporting is the notion that Ed Miliband has a special appeal to that critical section of the electorate who’ve switched from LD to LAB since 2010.

Looking in detail at the polling there is no other section of the electorate who are as positive about Ed Miliband. His level of support from the 6% of voters who have moved is a fair bit greater than CON voters with David Cameron.

Unless these numbers start to move my firm view is that most of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers will remain and that makes it very hard for the Tories to win a majority.

Mike Smithson

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