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If the Conservatives do lose power next May they’d be foolish to get rid of Cameron

July 9th, 2014

He’s the party’s biggest asset

If things go the way of current polling then it is highly likely that within less then a year we could have three separate leadership contests.

Farage has said he’ll stand down if his party fails to get an MP and it is hard to see Clegg being able to carry on if the election results in the disaster being predicted by the polls.

But what about the Tories? From past experience we know that they are the most ruthless of parties with leaders who are deemed to have failed and there’s a widespread expectation that Cameron will be expected to fall on his sword if LAB returns to power.

    But would Cameron going be the best move for the Tories because all the indicators are that unlike the other three leaders he’s the only one who is not a drag on his party?

Just look at the data above from this week’s Ashcroft poll which had LAB 7% ahead. To the positive/negative rating question he fares by far the best while Ed/Nick/Nigel perform worse than LAB/LD/Ukip.

These latest numbers are very much in line with what we see whenever parties and leaders are measured against each other. I follow the polls very closely and I cannot recall a time when the Tories have been ahead of Cameron.

A post-defeat replacement, I’d suggest, might make it harder for the blues in 2020 not easier.

Mike Smithson

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