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Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

May 20th, 2014

Survation have conducted a poll for the Daily Mirror, the fieldwork was yesterday and today, they polled 1,106 respondents.

As usual they have an all voters Voting Intention, and also applied a likelihood to vote (LTV) filter, but additionally this time, they’ve added an additional weighting measure. Respondents who were not aware of the day of the European Parliament Election was, had their likelihood to vote reduced to 0.6 of their expressed likelihood to vote. (So this is what the LTV & awareness tab in the above graph is.)

For example 81% of UKIP supporters are aware that the Euros are taking place this Thursday, compared with 70% of Tories & Lib Dems, for Labour supporters it is 62%, for other party supporters is 57%. For all voters it is 62%, 57% of Undecideds were aware that the Euros are on Thursday. Overall this means 38% of voters aren’t aware the Euros are taking place on Thursday. 18% Don’t know, and 14% think they are taking place between next week and May 2015.

This fits in with Corporeal’s earlier analysis that UKIP voters are more passionate when it comes to the Euros¬†and makes it likely that UKIP will win the Euros.

One of the great unknowns in UK politics for the next year is, how will the Kippers vote in a General Election, fortunately Survation have asked that question.

Crux of it is that 71% of European Election Voting UKIPpers will vote UKIP at the GE.

Survation also polled on Westminster VI.

UDPATE – The YouGov Euros poll for the Sun has it neck and neck

Whilst the YouGov Westminster VI has

TSE