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Month: April 2014

This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers

This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers

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Participants were asked were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with two statements:- “I would vote for Nigel Farage if he was standing in my constituency” (%) “Nigel Farage chose not to stand in Newark primarily because he is scared of losing” (%) The poll, for HuffPost is another example of how Survation is fast establishing a reputation as the most agile pollster. Yet again it has got right on top of issues by putting together, carriying out the fieldwork,…

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Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

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43% of 2010 CON voters say they’ll vote purple on May 22 Away from from Newark there’ve been two new Euro polls this morning both showing very similar figures. Check the interactive chart – LAB & CON shares both the same while ComRes makes it 38% for Ukip and TNS-BMRB makes it 36% These are massive moves which, if sustained, point to a dramatic outcome in the elections on May 22nd. For me the stunning figure is that both polls…

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Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

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Another good second place won’t be enough The media frenzy and the clamour for Farage to be the Ukip candidate will continue until he decides one way or the other. My assumption is that given the possibility that Newark has been on the cards for nearly a year that all the parties would have carried out preliminary work and have come to an assessment about their strategy. Ukip must have an idea of the terrain. The challenge for them is…

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By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

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New PB Thread on the Newark by-election http://t.co/4w5rDEVYsB pic.twitter.com/3lZWA51Yug — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 29, 2014 So we have a by-election in Newark. Earlier on today, when I speculated on whether a Newark by-election will be held on May 22nd, the same day as the locals and Euros, Mark Senior posted It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013…

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The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

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Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals CON -160 LAB +500 LD – 340 Ukip ??? pic.twitter.com/2VqfIooP1e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2014 For two decades Professors Rallings & Thrasher have been producing forecasts ahead of the May local elections based on their local by-election model. Usually these are “revealed” at a special briefing at the Institute of Government organised by the Political Studies Association which is what I’ve been attending today. This is an event that the party spinners absolutely hate…

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Betting on the May 22nd Euros continues to be miniscule compared with the IndyRef

Betting on the May 22nd Euros continues to be miniscule compared with the IndyRef

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Maybe SNP supporters are bigger gamblers than UKIP ones? Above is what is becoming a PB regular – our chart based on Betfair’s amount traded on key political markets data. There are all the other bookmakers but only the Betfair betting exchange provides the information so that you can get a picture of what is going on. I’ve little doubt that this represents the pattern elsewhere. Compared with what is happening to the Manchester City price on the Premiership title…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you like political betting, welcome to PB, Nobody Does It Better than PB. If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, no one will think You’re So Vain for delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Ukip condemned by cross-party group for…

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CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

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This from the Tories look like a smart campaigning import from the US. The PM wants to talk to ME pic.twitter.com/EwzBsI03ta — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2014 Big data giving the personal touch This morning Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, sent me the above email with an invitation to take part in a conference call with the Prime Minister tonight. Although the text doesn’t say it specifically there’s a suggestion that I could be in dialogue with Mr. Cameron. On…

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