There’s a big expectation that by the time we get to GE2015 many of those ex-CON voters now saying UKIP will, when push comes to shove, return to the blue fold.
I buy into that. We see in weekly round of local by-elections that the purples are chalking up big vote shares in wards where they don’t impact on the outcome, notably though not exclusively, in LAB heartlands. Last Thursday, for instance, they achieved 28% in Sunderland.
But looking at those local by elections which are being fiercely contested by two of the major parties and generally we see a different picture. UKIP gets nothing like the numbers seen elsewhere.
So that while the above Ashcroft polling might show the situation now I think that come election day it could be different.