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Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT

March 20th, 2014

Time to be putting more money on the blues winning the Euros

Downing Street will be delighted with the coverage that Osborne’s budget is getting in the papers this morning and my view is that we could start to see a change in the media narrative.

Suddenly the pressure that the savings changes put on the UKIP switchers will be become the story and every bit of news that supports this will be highlighted. Farage will be seen as the main Osborne target adding further pressure on the purples in the run in to the elections that are so important to them – the May Euros.

    I think that it is just possible that declining UKIP support and fewer 2010 CON don’t knows could lead to a Westminster polling cross-over in the next few days.

The first polls taken fully after the budget will appear on Saturday evening and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see movement to the blues. This will be seen first in the Westminster VI numbers and it could spill over into the Euro polling.

I’ve taken the precaution overnight betting on the Tories for both the GE2015 and EP2014.

Essentially the latter could become a three horse race so the 8/1 that’s currently available with Bet365 on the Tories winning most votes is a value bet.

This Osborne statement reminds me of his 2007 conference speech when it looked as though Brown was going to call an immediate general election and the Tories were trailing badly in the polls. His big promise of an easing in inheritance tax was seen as a game changer which is how it was portrayed across the media. The big LAB poll leads evaporated.

Mike Smithson

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