PaddyPower make LAB 4-5 odds-on favourite to win target number 91 Calder Valley

March 8th, 2014

Backing the Tories at evens could be a good bet

As I’ve written before my betting strategy for GE2015 is to stick with national outcome punts on Labour but go with single constituencies on the Tories. I’m also betting on UKIP and the LDs whenever I spot value. Thus I’m on the purples at 6/1 in Easteigh and the yellows at the same price in Watford.

So far the gap in my portfolio is a single seat CON bet. Looking down the list of those constituencies where the bookies have got markets up there are very few good opportunities. The Tories are favourites in the LD seats of Berwick, where Alan Beith is standing down, and Solihull where Lorely Burt is defending a majority of just 175 votes.

What I want is a CON held seat where LAB is challenging and where, on paper at least, their task looks dauting.
The Calder Valley outcome from 2010 is in the chart above. Could this be a CON hold or are there enouh 2010 LDs to butress the LAB total and get them over the line?

I’ve not decided. What do you think?

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble