Crossover on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market: LAB majority edges back to favourite for first time since June

March 5th, 2014

Last trade on LAB majority on Betfair = 40%

Last trade on NO majority on Betfair = 39.3%

Punters could be buying the “voteless recovery” narrative

The charts are from Betfair’s mobile site which annoyingly don’t show dates. The price data, expressed as a perentage chance, is linked to actual trades on the betting exchange.

In the past 24 hours LAB majority has edged back into the favourite slot after a period of eight months when no majority was the main choice of political punters and Labour slumped back to below 35%.

Meanwhile, though not shown, punters are becoming much less likely to bet on a CON majority. In the autumn the prices edged above 25% – now its down to just over 20%

In the coming months, as we get closer to the date, the general election betting markets will gain liquidity and will become stronger pointers of punter sentiment.

    Whether what punters do is relevant who knows? Last time the spread markets on commons seats closed with LAB on 222 seats 35 fewer than what they got.

My view is that the current betting is skewed by the CON majority price.

Mike Smithson

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