Wythenshawe looks as though it will take place in mid-February

January 20th, 2014

Betting on who’ll win outright

Betting on the runner-up

With the Wythenshawe by-election expected to take place in mid-February all the attention is now on who’ll get selected for Labour and UKIP.

Clearly, as saw in Eastleigh, the candidate can make a massive difference. That election was UKIP’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat and a lot of that was down to the quality of their candidate, Diane James. I can’t see her or Nigel Farage being tempted by the upcoming challenge.

    It is hard to see UKIP winning but they need a good performance (25-30% vote share) just to keep up the momentum.

A problem for Farage is that the North West is not one of UKIP’s strongest regions. Their big successes have been in the east. Even in the Alan Bown-funded single constituency polling before Christmas the party was doing comparatively badly in Crewe & Nantwich which is barely 25 miles away.

Last Thursday Labour won a council seat from the Tories in a ward that is adjacent to this parliamentary seat. UKIP did poorly.

Mike Smithson

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