MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t

January 18th, 2014

Check this YouGov polling – Europe has little salience

Quite simply there are too few potential converts

Judging by the intensity of many backbench CON MPs over the EU referendum issue you’d have thought that they firmly believe if only they could get this sorted it would be the magic bullet that would ensure their re-election at GE2015.

The blunt fact is that it isn’t. For the vast bulk of voters Europe, even those saying UKIP as the chart shows, is way down on their priority list as the issues trackers from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI make clear.

    They are making the mistake of believing that the fact that they personally feel strongly about it means that others do as well. Not so.

The problem, as I repeatedly point out, is that the issue of Europe has very little salience. It’s not something that most voters care that much about and it’s hard to see this being a vote driver.

It certainly, to judge by the latest polling from YouGov, is not something that is not going to win converts from 2010 LAB and LD supporters.

Mike Smithson

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