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I’m starting to think that UKIP could surprise us at GE2015

October 10th, 2013

Even out of the spotlight their polling remains resilient

Over the past month UKIP has been out of the news for all but about two days yet as the chart above shows this has hardly impacted on its YouGov poll numbers.

All but one of the other online pollsters have them doing even better even though only one of them, Survation, includes the party in its main prompt. To signify UKIP with YouGov, for instance, you have to first tick a box stating that you support “some other party”.

In the twice-weekly Populus online poll the weighting structure is ultra-harsh on UKIP with its unweighted figures usually being more than double the weighted ones.

    In every single by-election poll since GE2010 the UKIP share has been understated compared to the actual results

At GE2015 there will be quite a number of seats where, on the basis of parliamentary by-election or local election results, UKIP will be able to demonstrate that it is the main challenger to the incumbent party whether it be CON, LAB or LD.

If they are smart they will replicate in their leaflets the much derided Lib Dem bar charts to underpin their claim to be the challenger.

I’m starting to get confident about my 8/1 bet with William Hill that UKIP will finish with more than one seat. Certainly this is not a bet you can place today.

Mike Smithson