How will the 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB react to the speech? If they remain Ed becomes PM

September 25th, 2013

At the 2010 general election 24% of those who turned out voted for the Lib Dems and, as we all know, a large number have since shifted or are now saying don’t know.

The biggest segment, apart from those sticking with Clegg’s party, have gone to LAB – a move that happened in the first year of the coalition.

According to today’s YouGov poll the proportion of all 2010 LDs in the sample now voting LAB is 28.4%

    This is a massive movement of voters. To put it into context it represents more than 7% of all voters which is greater than the cumulative increase in the CON vote for all general elections since 1997.

If this group stays with LAB then it is hard to see how Ed Miliband will not become PM.

Today’s YouGov was based on fieldwork that was started on Tuesday evening when McBride was dominating the bulletins . The first full post speech reaction will come tomorrow.

If a significant proportion of 2010 LDs are still with LAB in polling over the next few weeks then it will be job well done for Ed.

Mike Smithson