Is he really so far ahead? According to the latest projection by Nate Silver the chances of Obama being re-elected are 68.8%. Nate, who now writes for the New York Times, has a complex formula based on polling and economic indicators. This latest projection comes in a great article from someone I rate highly – though I do wonder about rating chances to one decimal point. I have changed my betting on the race. The mood seems to be swinging…
Why is no-one talking about the double-dip? The revised growth figures released earlier this week showing the current recession to be deeper than previously thought passed with the sort of muted media comment that’s been was typical of the coverage of the current recession in general – you’d hardly know there is one. The media seems unable or unwilling to use it as a narrative within which to run other economic stories. Even Labour’s efforts to push the line are…
Yesterday’s by-elections (thanks to Andrea Parma) Charnwood – Sileby Con 703 Lab 450 BNP 93 LD 29 Con hold. Around 4% swing Con to Lab (all due to Con being 9 points down) compared to 2011 South Northamptonshire – Grange Park Con 313 LD 98 Con hold Blaby- Ravenhurst and Fosse Lab 1083 Con 501 Lab hold.10% swing Con to Lab compared to 2011 Chelmsford – Patching Hall LD 842 Con 488 Lab 309 UKIP 263 Green 84 LD hold….
Do Dave & George simply look like push-overs? There’s a good piece by Speccie editor, Fraser Nelson, in the Telegraph on the corrosive impact that successive U-turns are having on the government. “..It sometimes feels as if Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne do not regard themselves as being in power, but instead believe they are trapped – by the opinion polls, by the Liberal Democrats, by the Civil Service, by the bond markets, or by all four. Downing Street insiders…
Just put £250 on Romney at 1.58/1 on Betfair.My reading is that the market has over-reacted — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2012 @omerlev @JohnRentoul Political betting markets are not there to be predictive but places where you can make money is you are smart — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2012 Interesting little discussion on Twitter about the nature of political betting and whether or not it is predictive or not. My view is that this is not what…
Ipsos-MORI There’s a new Ipsos-MORI poll of voting intentions for the Scottish parliament and these show the same trends that we saw in the Scottish local elections on May 3rd. Scottish Labour moving up with the SNP moving down. A big loser since the last poll at the start of the year has been the Scottish Lib Dems. The shares, in common with MORI’s current practice are based on those certain to vote: SNP 45:LAB 32: CON 12: LD 6….
Why the 5 year law is not the blockage it appears? This week’s Michael Gove O-level story and David Cameron’s somewhat controversial speech as Conservative leader on welfare stuck out for me as being a bit peculiar. They were spun as what we might see from a future majority Conservative government. But who will remember this in May 2015? There are two plausible political explanations. The most likely is the Prime Minister needed to butter up the troops especially before…
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