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Month: September 2009

Can you predict the tracker poll for Friday October 9th?

Can you predict the tracker poll for Friday October 9th?

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Why I’m liking the tracker I’m getting to rather like the YouGov tracker simply it provides an opportunity to test my theories about what drives the polls. I’ve always argued here that so much of poll findings outside election campaigns is driven by which party or politician is getting the most attention. For most people are not really that interested in politics. So far the tracker seems to have been backing this up. The Tories have hardly been heard from…

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Labour close the gap to 7% with the YouGov tracker.

Labour close the gap to 7% with the YouGov tracker.

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CON 37% (-3) LAB 30% (+1) LD 21%(+3) But most of fieldwork took place BEFORE the Sun’s news? Peter Kellner has just been in touch with news of today YouGov tracker poll. He emphasises that “most fieldwork reflects impact of yesterday evening TV news coverage but not this mornings papers. Tomorrow’s figures will measure full impact of media coverage, Sun switch etc”. It’s important to note that the numbers we are seeing each are essentially a reaction to the news…

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Will any of these be brave enough to call on Brown to go?

Will any of these be brave enough to call on Brown to go?

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PaddyPower Do the terms of the market make it a good bet? Thanks to StJohn on the previous thread for spotting this new market fromPaddyPower on who, of a named list, will be the first to call on Gordon Brown to step down. The chances are, as far as I can see, that none of them would go public and the likelihood is that Brown will leave of his own accord – probably after a general election defeat. But under…

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Measuring the impact of the Sun’s switch?

Measuring the impact of the Sun’s switch?

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What will today’s news do to YouGov’s daily tracker? In trying to assess the political influence of the Sun’s switch Labour MP, Nick Palmer, made this astute comment on the previous thread:- “..It occurs to me that the daily YouGovs are going to give us an excellent opportunity to test the power of the Sun endorsement to shift things. The YouGov taken today and reported tomorrow will show the impact of the speech plus a little bit of Sun. The…

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Has this been timed to cause the maximum damage?

Has this been timed to cause the maximum damage?

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Will the Sun’s move dispirit the party even more? Labour’s big remaining hope as it entered the conference season was that Brown’s speech would exceed the low expectations and provide the platform for some sort of recovery. Last year the PM’s “no time for a novice” phrase caught the mood of the time and for the final quarter of 2008 Cameron’s Tories were on the back foot. A lot was riding on being able to do the same again –…

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Marf on the speech

Marf on the speech

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You can see more of Marf’s work at LondonSketchbook.com Meanwhile we now have the YouGov post speech poll – the first figure is after the speech – the second is before it. It should be noted that the sample was simply people who watched the speech – it was not demographically or politically weighted and as Anthony Wells at UKPollingReport observes “People who watched his speech are likely to be a lot more politically aware, a lot more well disposed…

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