Can we wallop the PH100 again on a by-election prediction?
October 30th, 2008
Three months ago the endlessly irritating PH100 panel of so-called “experts and insiders” on the PoliticsHome PH100 produced their prediction for the Glasgow East by election. They got it wildly wrong while a PB online poll got it precisely right.
Now the PH100 is back again in the prediction business and their projection for next week’s Glenrothes by election appears above. The panel clearly are not gamblers and their projection has had zero affect on the by election betting.
For what it’s worth I think this is 50-50 situation and will bet on Labour as long as you can get a price that is substantially better than evens.
But can the PB community once again produce a better prediction? Please take a couple of seconds to do the online poll below.
UPDATE 1110 am
I have received the following email from Freddie Sayers of Politics Home:-
Hi Mike,
Re your blog on Glenrothes, there was an error in our graph title which we have now fixed - I wonder if you could possibly exchange/update it urgently as it is misleading? I include the corrected version below.
As is made clear in Andrew’s piece, that line graph does NOT show a prediction of the percentage result. The panel were asked to choose from a multiple choice which expressed the result “in terms of a percentage majority” - the spread of predictions is shown in the bar graph below. The line graph shows overall aggregate Westminster sentiment about the eventual victor in Glenrothes over time.
As I keep on saying, this has never been a PoliticsHome prediction: it is a very accurate measure, from the very best sample there is, of what the consensus feeling is in Westminster at any one time. It is just as useful and interesting whether they turn out to be wrong or right: if the consensus expectation is that Labour are set to win Glenrothes and they then lose, for example, the backlash can be expected to be that much more severe.
Below is the amended headline and graphic -
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
first?
PB will, of course, kick arse.
Will Hague replace Osborne?
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/10/is-osborne-no-l.html
Odds!
Is Nick Palmer back from Glenrothes yet?
In addition to the local factors that have been highlighted before as being in Labour’s favour, I can’t help thinking that the SNP will suffer from the economic worries. It’s all very well calling for an independent Scotland in the good times, when Salmond was comparing Scotland with Iceland, but now I suspect people will be looking for the security of a larger nation. I wonder how many people are thinking about whether Edinburgh could have afforded to bail out the Scottish banks…
I say SNP. By 2000ish votes. My friend in the constituency (who is an SNP voter) reckons it will be Labour though.
2 LS. I think what you mean is that :
The ARSE will kick PH100 for PB !!
4. Who cares?
Could be an exciting day today. After 11 years of moderate growth followed by a short period of moderate recession, the FTSE 100 could regain the heady heights set by John Major on 2nd May 1997.
Mind you, it is the opinion of some that the direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, and not the main concern at the moment.
How many up-and-coming pensioners in Glenrothes, anybody?
Gabble Check List for Thursday, 30th October 2008
FTSE 100 opens at 4242.54
Optimistic milestones to watch for:
4455.60 - up 213.06 (5.02%) to reach 2nd May 1997 level
5385.90 - up 1143.36 (26.95%) to come out of current bear market
5665.25 - up 1422.71 (33.53%) to match DOW performance since 2 May 97
5709.52 - up 1466.98 (34.58%) to match CAC performance since 2 May 97
6191.65 - up 1949.11 (45.94%) to match DAX performance since 2 May 97
6330.07 - up 2087.53 (49.20%) to match inflation (42.07%) since 2 May 97
6527.60 - up 2285.06 (53.86%) to return to Blair’s 27th June 2007 level
6930.20 - up 2687.66 (63.35%) to equal all-time high on 30 Dec 99
Pessimistic milestones to watch for:
3460.00 - down 782.54 (-18.45%) to reach Madasafish’s interim low
3287.00 - down 955.54 (-22.52%) to reach Blair’s low on 12 Mar 03
2780.00 - down 1462.54 (-34.47%) to reach Madasafish’s low low
2144.30 - down 2098.24 (-49.46%) to return to 28th Nov 90 (exit Maggie!)
SNP gain.
Tut tut Jack, manners !!
Good morning PBers worldwide and in Glenrothes.
Meanwhile ….
Latest Zogby/Reuters tracker :
McCain 43.2% .. Obama 50.2%
Note - Yesterday - M-44.4/O-49.1
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1620
SNP, but not by much. There are still plenty of reasons for voters not to go out to vote for Labour at a by-election, and plenty of reasons for voters to support someone else. Lots of Lib Dem votes to squeeze (and how the Lib Dems have been squeezed in Scotland across the board, never mind just in this by-election) and a differential turnout should be sufficient to see the SNP in - but it’s close. I laid Labour at 11/10 recently but wouldn’t have gone much higher. I’d give them about a 40% chance.
Rod Crosby 209(prev.) This could turn out to be the most important post ever made on PB.com. The present thread is very entertaining, but the prospect of the US election being voided within a few days of voting is mind-boggling.US constitution is based on law, the rules for the election are clear and the Supreme Court cannot over-ride them, merely because a majority of the population would like it to happen. I think this site should stay with this problem until the likely outcome is much clearer.
House prices down 15% in a year
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7698393.stm
3)
NO v unlikely, but he is doing Treasury questions today. He will need to do well.
SNP. I think Labour will lose due to tactical voting.
@3
Not based on a single observation - I’d need to see something more concrete.
I’d say it can go either way, but at the least the Labour majority will be slashed.
This has to be a sign of desperation for Labour in Glenrothes.
In a leaflet being delivered to all 40,000 households in the constituency, the Manchester United manager argued the Prime Minister “deserves support” while he deals with the current economic turmoil.
Sir Alex, a lifelong Labour supporter, wrote: “I always tell players entering the game that being a footballer is the best job in the world.
“Yes, it’s hard work to reach the top - but not as hard as bringing up a family or running a household on a tight budget.
“With all that is happening in the global economy, clearly there are some challenging times ahead.”
He added: “But the Labour government under Gordon Brown has handled the situation well, and deserves support at this difficult time.”
Sir Alex said Lindsay Roy, the Labour candidate and headteacher of Mr Brown’s former school, had the “attributes to provide that representation for Glenrothes”.
Mr Roy, a keen footballer who used to train with St Johnstone reserves, said he was delighted to receiving the backing of “a legend like Sir Alex”.
17, that’ll cut both ways. Lots of people loathe Manchester United. I imagine it may well be a plus overall though (for Labour).
17 - Sir Alex Ferguson supported Labour at Crewe & Nantwich. It didn’t seem to do much good there.
I voted for an SNP win, but my vote to be honest is no more valuable than those on Politics Home, because I’m not betting on this by-election. I see it as slightly more slanted in the SNP’s favour than Mr Smithson does, but don’t feel I understand the dynamics enough to make an educated bet.
OT: hilarious Newsnight yesterday. First up, a ‘debate’ where all 3 comedians/writers work regularly or occasionally for the BBC and all agreed that although Brand and Ross were naughty they shouldn’t have to go and giving in to the people who pay their bloody wages was ‘mob rule’.
Then a worthy piece about Congo, and relegated to third place the destruction of Brown’s fiscal rules and the destruction of any pretence Labour can claim to economic competence. A little spiel with Comrade Mason, no government chap to talk to at all.
Who voted for ‘none of the above’?!?
18 I think the Tories should get Arsene Wenger or Phil Scolari to do a paper on why David Cameron is the best person to lead us in a cyclical downturn after all he does at least believe in boom and bust.
21, Ave It, predicting a win for McCain?
I’ve voted for an SNP win but I think the margin will be less than a 1,000, which means it could just still be a Labour hold. Going to be far closer than it seemed a few months ago - a big test for Brown (and Salmond).
re 13. Check this on the Obama birth certificate -
http://www.record-bee.com/ci_10850818
24
are there any figures available for job losses in the last 6 months in the constituency?
22 Seriously speaking though Ferguson is another of these labour toady’s who have got seriously rich at the expense of the under class and lower middle class under Brown. I would like to see Alan Sugar, J K Rowling, Duncan Bannatyne, Peter Jones and Alex Ferguson all hit with a massive windfall tax once the Tories get in and also investigated for possibly being benificiries of pork barrel politics.
17. Thats enough ballocks to make anyone vote against Labour. I still think SNP will win , not by as much as I previously thought.
I still find it hard to believe the amount of people in Scotland who will vote Labour considering their record in Scotland and the bunch of losers they have in Holyrood and invisible people in Westminster. I am certain that very few people would be able to name 5 Labour MP’s at Westminster
O/T - not sure if this has been mentioned but McCain now firefighting in Arizona…
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/mccain_now_running_robocalls_i.php
Ferguson is another champagne socialist who has demonstrated what a greedy man he is over the Rock of Gibraltar stud fees affair. He should stick to football.
13. Apologies for the length of the post, but I think it’s important to respond to Rod’s comments. There are two main answers, one to the questions he raises and one more general point. Rod’s comments are in italics:
By his own testimony, he is unique among Presidential candidates, in that…
i) his father was never a US citizen
This is not relevant to his being a natural-born citizen providing that either he could have taken that citizenship from his mother or in some other way.
ii) he was brought up under a military dictatorship in Indonesia.
Completely irrelevant to whether he was a natural-born citizen or not.
It has since emerged that…
iii) Obama was adopted by a Muslim, Mr. Soetoro, took the name Barry Soetoro, and was registered as a Muslim at school in Jakarta
Equally irrelevant legally, though obviously it has some political consequences.
It is further arguable that…
iv) his mother was not able to transmit US citizenship to him under the US codes applicable at the time of his birth. Ergo, if he was not a citizen at the time of his birth, he cannot be a natural born citizen, whether or not he happens to be a citizen now (there is no evidence of naturalisation, obviously).
This is the interesting one. There are two legally arguable cases: (a) that his mother could confer citizenship on him - which it’s also very arguable that she could, and (b) that even though the constitution requires presidents to be natural born citizens, if citizenship if granted retrospectively back to birth, this also counts i.e. what is important is whether that person is regarded now as having been a natural-born citizen, not whether they would have been at the time of their birth. That neither case is being persued very vigorously would tend to suggest that the consensus is that Obama is qualified. Not that that carries any legal weight.
there is speculation that…
v) he was not born in Hawaii, but Mombassa, Kenya
Speculation is speculation. The evidence so far produced supports him having been born in Hawaii.
there is a further allegation that
vi) he has intervened in recent Kenyan domestic politics.
Bush intervened in Iraqi domestic politics; it didn’t make him Iraqi and disqualify him from the 2004 election. Obama has family in Kenya and Kenya has a link to an extremely high-profile US politician; it would be surprising if no attempts had been made by Kenyans to make use of this.
On the more general point, I disagree that the onus is on Obama to prove his case. The historic record suggests the opposite. Tyler’s right to succeed William Henry Harrison on the latter’s death and for the remainder of his term was by no means assured at the time but he did so and remained so not least because he virtually proclaimed himself so. The declared winner of the election will become president on 20th January 2009 providing that he remains in adequate health and no other impediment has been proven against him. I don’t know the exact laws, and they’ll vary from state to state, but I’d be amazed if voters are unable to challenge the validity of candidates nominated prior to the election in none of the 51 administrations choosing their electors next Tuesday.
30 Linked O/T - Pollster.com now has Obama with 272 Firm Electoral College Votes, with a further 39 leaning and 85 toss-up. Also worth noting that Arizona, Mississippi and South Dakota are now reduced to “lean McCain”.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
32 Very good David but why do you bother?
People who do not believe that water is wet are unlikely to be persuaded by your reasons however well supported by facts.
21.You missed the delights of Newsnight Scotland last night.
35, oh, do tell.
re 32. See this site for pictures of the certificate, the official seal etc…etc..
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
…and a copy of an ad in a Honolulu paper 11 days later announcing the birth. Are people really suggesting that this was all done so that 47 years later he could become president?
It’s the sort of thing that someone who specialises in holocaust denial would come up with!!
32 and others. Why this fixation on Abama’s qualifications?
McCain’s are also suspect.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23415028/
Ooops! Obama’s !
12. Worth looking at Zogby for the commentary. Zogby sure does like to ham stuff up. I wish I had an archive of his patter. On Monday he was ramping a McCain surge, now he says McCain needs a wing and a prayer:
—-
Obama gains, McCain slips
UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama has inched forward again, once again expanding his lead above 50% and moving outside the margin of error as rival John McCain slipped more than a full point, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.
With just five days to go before Election Day, Obama gained 1.1 points, as Republican McCain dropped an identical amount. The race now stands with Obama at 50.2%, compared to 43.3% for McCain. Another 6.5% said they are either undecided or favor another candidate. This poll came out of the field BEFORE the airing of Obama’s 30–minute commercial last night.
Pollster John Zogby: With less than a week to go, today’s numbers are not a good development for McCain. There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to run short. Worse news for McCain today is that Obama hit 50% in the single day of polling, while he dropped back to the low 40s. Obama increased his lead among independents compared to yesterday, has moved into a lead among men, and still holds about one in five conservatives. But six days, including Election Day, is an eternity and McCain cannot be counted out yet, though he may need a wing and a prayer.
35.The newbie for the Scottish team interviewed the Conservative candidate for the by election, I was waiting for some hard questions on issues relating constituency. Instead he got shown a clip of David Davis on The Daily Politics not too convinced the Tories would win the seat, and hard questioning on Osborne.
41, I wonder if the political approach of the BBC is in fact a brilliant, ironic lampooning of leftwing hypocrisy and blinkered thinking.
33 Thanks MM
Now try comparing that with the equivalent breakdown by Rasmussen.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
Notice the difference?
I’ve kind of lost faith faith in Ras as an unbiased informant.
& to 37. If the birth certificate story had legs then it would have been used by the Hillary campaign and it would also have been investigated at length by the mainstream media.
Now about the holocaust…..
34. Yes, those who believe hard enough will never be persuaded but casual observers could give more weight to the arguments than is merited if the balancing case isn’t made.
One other reply to Svejk - the US Supreme Court has a long and not altogether distinguished history of interpreting the constitution. It can be made a more flexible document that it sometimes appears if the will is there.
32 Could also add that John McCain was born in 1936 in the Panama Canal Zone, Panama - the right to citizenship of those born in the Canal Zone was not firm until 1953 and then under an Act of Congress not under the Constitution. There are more doubts I would say on McCain’s claim to be a natural born citizen than Obama’s.
45 Yes, I guess you are right David, but it’s tedious, isn’t it.
You have more patience than I.
42.Last night you could have written it into the script of “The Thick of it”. On the issue of Osborne, the seating arrangements were I think for the camera’s, but Benedict Brogan noted that Osborne had rock solid support in the Parliamentary Party.
40 - Seeing the name Utica, reminds me that that is where Cato committed suicide after the Battle of Thapsus where Caesar had destroyed the last hopes of the Optimates.
37. Cheers, Mike. As I said, the evidence points to him having been born in Hawaii
. I’d seen that picture but didn’t have a link to hand.
31 - “He should stick to football.” Indeed. As should that Blanchflower chappie, who hasn’t actually lived in the UK for 20 years now.
My guess would be an SNP win for the reasons David H suggests at 13.
Of more significance though is the way Brown looks like he’s getting his act together…..
He’s still slow on his feet cumbersome clumsy uncool and dour but he’s also started to look like a Prime Minister.
The pitiful figure of last year’s floods has gone….and almost identifiable is the towering chancellor we knew for ten years.
Did anyone else feel sorry for Osborne at yesterday’s PMQ’s?
52 “he’s also started to look like a Prime Minister.” Chamberlain?
38. GeoffH: Why this fixation on Obama’s qualifications?
Because he’s going to win.
McCain’s are also suspect.
Only if you believe the absurd argument that there exist places that are neither in nor not in the US.
44. If the birth certificate story had legs then it would have been used by the Hillary campaign and it would also have been investigated at length by the mainstream media.
I think Berg is/was involved with the Hillary campaign. As for the MSM, yougoddabekiddinme.
And as for the birth certificate seen by FactCheck but, AIUI, no-one else, why didn’t Obama simply give it to Judge Surrick and end this nonsense?
There are many dubious things about FactCheck’s examination of the certificate but they’re well-rehearsed and I won’t bore you with them again.
According to PH100 experts Labour are favorites. This is reversed in the politicalbetting.com poll.
I think the ‘experts’ ( probably consisting of Labour university professors) will get it wrong again.
Is that ridiculous Scottish university professor who always claims the Tories are not doing well enough in local elections to form a majority in the general election part of the PH100 panel ?
If the politics ‘professors’ are like him you can use PH100 as a contrarian indicator.
I see that two people in our poll have voted for “none of the above”.
56 Hmmm..John Loony of course, but who’s the other one? Ave It doesn’t post this time in the morning.
I’m quite surprised by the number of greengrocers (nb not greengrocer’s) who post on this site. How do people get through school without learning that plurals never have apostrophes?
I find it hard to concentrate fully on posts with such glaring grammatical errors. Am I alone?
58 - No. But you’re a brave man posting that immediately under Peter the Punter. He’s likely to set Mighty Fella on you….
28, 31. bizarre parody postings, or the politics of envy? i can’t decide.
Has anybody got a link to Obama’s 30 minutes commercial that was shown last night - I can’t find one anywhere.
O/T - Did anyone see the marathon TV Obamamercial last night? The Guardian loved it, which is worrying. I thought Wage Slave’s (and others’) fears that it might show hubris and be counter-productive had a very plausible ring about them….
61 - Perfect harmony (as always). Is this it?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/30/uselections2008-barackobama
52
Well Kelvin obviously doesn’t
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kelvin_mackenzie/article1871752.ece
53
Chamberlain! wasn’t he a Tory, are you saying that GB looks like a Tory?
52 Roger. Towering Chancellor? Totally weird - he must be the most devastating chancellor ever.He presided, for the last 8 of his 10 years,over the most disastrous waste of this country’s wealth on record,and we shall be paying for it for years.
61 - Mike, is this the one?
http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/89092
63 - Nope…it’s a only 2mins extract
56.”I see that two people in our poll have voted for “none of the above”.”
Was lisetening to Darling this morning on Today and wanted some help from PB’s financial experts. The Govt is obviously keen to get the banks lending to small businesses again but they seem reluctant to do so. Am I right in thinking that the banks are reluctant because they want to shrink their balance books because they have realised they were overstretched during the boom. Logically therefore they need to reduce the extent and number of their loans which is why they are reluctant to lend.
It seems then that two ‘good’ things are in conflict (keeping small business going and reducing the banks exposure). Is there a way to reconcile this conflict? If not, which is more likely to win out and which should win out?
69 - Yes they are aware they need to close the funding gap.
On topic, I am saying SNP. Labour has undoubtedly had a bit of a rally and one decent poll in Scotland. But they aren’t out of the woods by any means and by-elections are always a fun way to vent frustrations.
56 - I didn’t know the mothers of the Tory and Lib Dem candidates read this blog. Greetings, ladies, and bonne chance to your boys!
As mentioned by one of the Sundays, is there perhaps the real prospect of a counter bid for HBOS with its share price having risen from 58p to 90p over the past three days?
Won’t work mthis time Mike. Your resident Tory majority will vote SNP, emotionally, rather than from rational analysis. The just happened to be right in being anti-Labour in Glasgow. Not so sure this time…
58. You are obviously a bit anally retentive, it should not be a big deal and if you are so hot at grammar then you should be able to handle it, be different if you were unable to tell if it was singular or plural.
69. simple answer: of those two ‘good’ things, banks and small business, one always wins and the other always gets shafted.
74 I’ve voted Labour (probably for the first and only time in my life), simply because they currently appear to have all the momentum. Glenrothes was always going to be a mountain to climb for the SNP and given Labour’s recent resurgence, I will now be very surprised if they win this by-election.
re 72. It was like the betting market on the line-up of party leaders before the 2005 general election. There was somebody who kept on offering to bet on IDS being amongst them - and this was more than a year after he had been ousted.
I reckoned it was IDS’s mum.
76. Yes - which makes Labour’s foolish pledge to ‘maintain lending at 2007 levels’ even more politically damaging.
58. i’m with you on that.
74. probably so. additionally, there can be no winner. if our two polls stay as they are, 60-40 in opposite directions, neither will be a winner or a loser. saying something has a 40% chance and then watching it lose is not necessarily wrong.
73 - Please let it be so. I moved from Lloyds TSB to Bank of Scotland last year because I was so sick of the appalling service I got from Lloyds. I really don’t fancy having to do it all over again.
I voted SNP because I think their position in the constituency (viz 2007 result for Scot Parl and council) is just too strong for them to be denied. I am also mindful of the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which was much worse for Labour than suspected.
For all that, it won’t be the walkover that it looked liked being a little while ago, for the following reasons.
1. I think most Scots will have taken some pride in the fact that it was Brown and Darling who seem to have taken the lead during the financial crisis.
2. The bail out of the Scottish banks has left Salmond floundering and pricked his bubble well and truly. Salmond’s chutzpah is a major factor in the appeal of the SNP.
3. Independence as a realistic option has taken a major knock - although it won’t necessarily impact quite so much on the SNP vote itself (the two are separate considerations in the minds of voters)
4. Overall the terms of trade in Scottish politics has changed much more than in England (where I expect the Tories to easily regain their ascendancy once the immediate crisis is over and the economic bad news begins to sink in).
My guess is that the SNP will still edge out Labour in Glenrothes (hell, this is a by-election and the government is bound to be clobbered) but forecasts of sweeping SNP gains at the General Election are looking rather weak now.
Obama’s price has slipped around 4 votes on the ECV spreads over the past 24 hours.
79. i hardly think that will be remembered as the iceberg that sank the titanic.
52 Roger, Gordon Brown is back in his comfort zone; he’s not being Prime Minister but Chancellor. Its when he has to deal with the other parts of a PMs job that he fails. Get the impression that he is so involved in the “Global Financial Crisis that Started in America” that he has dropped a number of policies (42 days etc) that were likely to distract him and other the rest of the Cabinet are able to operate without No 10 interference.
74. Did Gary Player not say the more he practiced the luckier he got ?
58. “I find it hard to concentrate fully on posts with such glaring grammatical errors. Am I alone?”
I hope so.
69. If only it was just about reducing the funding gap - oh they do, but it makes no sense to cut loans that are profitable. Banks are reviewing their exposure to economically sensitive businesses. Sectors such as wholesale and small business generally have cashflow problems at the best of times. The banks know that in a downturn, lots of businesses will go bust. Since they all know which sectors/regions/risk classes are weak, all banks rush to cut their exposure first. (Being last is bad for obvious reasons).
The problem is that healthy businesses which might survive if the banks didnt cut credit are probably being caught in the net (head office demands an across the board 3% cut in lending to sector Y). And as most small businesses only have one bank relationship, being cut loose by your bank means that you then have a reputation as a lemon and no one else will lend to you.
As I said to NickP when he asked - demands for loans to grow overall wont work, what would make sense would be demands for greater latitude for local managers (branch and regional). Perhaps incentives for small business angel investors?
It isnt just shrinking balance sheets, but also a fundamental problem - the economy is going down.
The government can borrow as much as they like(at our great expense) but how on earth can they spend in a timescale which will have any effect on the economy - in particular on the unemployed and small businesses which must be their objective? They have to 1) identify massive projects 2) go through the design and planning process 3)deal with public and environmental problems 4)identify and train the workforce needed (retrain clerks and bricklayers to work on a new nuclear site?? ridiculous) 5)identify and solve the logistical and supply problems 6)acquire the relevant sites etc. etc. Imagine 5 new projects like the Olympic site, which is taking years, using a workforce already available.It is such nonsense.
At 60:40 in SNP favour the poll looks about right. It is hard to believe that labour could be favourites aprt from the fact that they have had all the press for last few weeks, underneath they are still at least as bad as they were a month ago , when it was just a case of how many thousand the SNP won by. It would appear they now have a chance but I still cannot believe enough people are so stupid that they would win.
MalcolmG - I didn’t say I couldn’t handle it, I said I found it distracting. I hence give a little less weight to arguments presented using poor grammar. I can assure you that I don’t use my arsehole for retaining a bit of anything!
74,77 Well I for one didn’t!
The PHI100 isn’t useless by any means, but seeing as this panel by definition does not represent anything like the demographics of those who actually vote in the real elections then it does run the risk of becoming irrelevant if they keep getting results wildly wrong.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
42 too brilliant for me.
37. I don’t think Rod is prejudiced-just a Liverpudlian
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=C2QEm028lKA
58
Not strictly true:-
My sister’s friend’s investments (the investments belonging to a friend of my sister)
My sister’s friends’ investments (the investments belonging to several friends of my sister)
My sisters’ friend’s investments (the investments belonging to a friend of several of my sisters)
My sisters’ friends’ investments (the investments belonging to several friends of several of my sisters)
The apostrophe appears after the s in a plural.
93 - Guido has noted some “strikingly inverse proportions”
http://www.order-order.com/2008/10/round-ii-glenrothes-punters-v-pundits.html
79. Runnymede, but the government (and the banks) gave themselves an out by talking about availability. The banks were never going to do anything other than concentrate on their own survival - and it is by no means guaranteed (oh the banks will probably continue to trade, but shareholders and managers might be unpleasantly surprised).
But, the lefties who were overjoyed by nationalisations will be mightily miffed when they find out the nationalised businesses are putting the boot into the poor and unfortunate. I think we all know what will happen next year as this becomes clear - lots of Polly ranting about the useless Gordon.
69/70 - another very good reason why the banks are reluctant to lend cash to each other, to small businesses or to anyone else is that they are likely to need that cash when the huge loans they have made to emerging markets are not repaid. The threat to Britain lies in emerging Asia, where our British banks have lent $329bn, almost as much as the Americans and Japanese combined.
It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings - and we’re barely through the overture yet.
Own up, who voted for none of the above?
76…and meanwhile this decision by Lloyds (to stop people switching to interest only mortgages) also shows how empty the government’s pledges on controlling bank behaviour are.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5034136.ece
96 - I object far more to constructions of that type than I do to misplaced apostrophes. They make my eyes bleed.
Brown did not look confident yesterday, in fact quite the opposite. His replies were poor, rambling and quite often seemed to tail off halfway through.
98. Yes, absolutely, this pledge was (as usual!) pure spin. And the government will, as you say, live to regret it.
92 Jonny Jimmy. Actually plurals do have apostrophes, as in “greengrocers’” - being pedantic has its drawbacks, one has to be faultless.
97 ……and Guido is calling it for PB’s punters over PH 100’s pundits.
99. It’s not cash that is the problem - it is losses and capital that we are talking about. If small business loans in the UK were profitable banks would be willing to keep lending as long as they were getting returns in excess of their cost of funding. Assuming that there are losses in emerging Asia (something I am less convinced of - most loans there were business rather than rash proprty speculation as in Emerging Europe), it would be irrelevant to a decision to lend to a small business here. It is because the banks believe that small business borrowing will also lose them money, that they are cutting it.
The game with cutting lending is about reducing losses and depletion of capital. On the balance sheet this is about liabilities and shareholders equity, rather than about assets (cash).
88.99. Thanks for the explanation. So will the Government’s scheme to keep the banks lending to small business work or is it throwing good money after bad?
I really think it can only be an SNP win and have voted accordingly. Had the by-election been a few weeks ago then Labour might have held on, by next week thats looking unlikely.
106, not long till we’ll find out. What sort of timescale will be involved in getting the results?
If anyone regards the views of a man who was knighted by this government as objective, they need their head looking at.
108. What scheme? The random pledge of keeping loan availability is meaningless. I hadnt spotted anything else. But, nothing is going to make banks lend to people they think are risky other than a blanket government guarantee, which is a great way to lose shedloads of money very quickly if mishandled. So small business gets the shaft.
111 - Que?
Brown will fail again, SNP will win.
113, Sir Alex, presumably.
coldstone, you’re obviously right in what you say there but the point is that a plain plural never has e apostrophe, only a possessive plural does. I should have been more precise but I did send the message on my blackberry while walking to work and my fingers were getting numb!
coldstone, you’re obviously right in what you say there but the point is that a plain plural never has an apostrophe, only a possessive plural does. I should have been more precise but I did send the message on my blackberry while walking to work and my fingers were getting numb!
whoops!
Voted SNP, have mostly backed Labour. So I’m anticipating a good value loser. Mind you, I’ve just seen the 4/5 SNP Skybet are currently offering (to good size) so have levelled myself off a bit.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the daily ARSE (BUTT) tracker that indicates :
McCain 45.5% .. Obama 52.5% .. Others 2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 68 .. Obama 339 .. Toss Up 131
Changes Since Last Projection - No Change.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 141 .. Obama 397
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
37. 95. Mike – thanks for putting a stop to Rod Crosby’s teeth-grindingly awful birth certificate drumbeat.
Roger – tell me, how is someone who denies the holocaust, says whites are superior to blacks and Chinese people superior to whites not prejudiced. I find Crosby odious.
115. Yeah. It’s bizarre that this is being presented as any kind of neutral endorsement at all. They might as well have had Jim Murphy endorsing Labour.
108. There is no scheme - just an empty pledge. It’s 100% spin.
Jonny Jimmy. I am NOT Coldstone, thank God (or whoever).
112. Darling is talking about a £4bn package with the European Investment Banks http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7699259.stm.
I presume, then, that we are going to see a lot of small businesses go under.
Svejk, I was replying to coldstone at 96, I hadn’t even seen your post!
re 95. There goes a true Mancunian speaking. Well said Roger.
Sorry, Jonny Jimmy, did not see the earlier post by Coldstone.
Obama leads 46:45 in new Indiana poll:
http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=9263066
Caveat on the quality of this poll: 82% of African Americans polled in this poll said they would support Barack Obama. That is down from 94% in their last poll. Yeah, right!!!
Advice requested for OBAMA HEDGERS:
Given that there are so many of us PBers who have money on Obama at decent odds, and given that there’s no such thing as a certainty (despite what Mike’s curious article said yesterday) does anyone have any suggestions for the timing of hedging?
I notice McCain has come in from 9/1 to 7/1 with the bookies… do we think the 7/1 should be taken, or should it widen again before polling day?
“Events dear boy” excluded of course.
cheers in advance for any thoughts,
Rob
102 - Literally? Blimey, my sisters’ friends’ mother’s brother will be most impressed by that.
115. was he claiming to be objective?
on this page he has certainly come in for some of that very special bile that Cons always reserve for the nouveau riche.
130, James, so your sisters all have the same friends who have the same mother?
108,107 The problem is that if banks reduce lending to small businesses then some of these businesses will go bust, throwing more people out of work and leaving creditors unpaid, and this will weaken other businesses because the newly-unemployed will not have money to spend and the amount of bad debts will rise. Thus more businesses will go bust and the whole thing could become a downward spiral (as happened in the early 90s - on that occasion the fall in the value of sterling after black Wednesday increased overseas demand for British goods and the downward spiral was broken).
The government exhortations to banks to lend are rhetoric IMO, and they conflict with their demands to the banks to imporve their capital base. At the moment the policy aim is to break the downward spiral that we are undoubtedly now in by cuts in interest rates, falls in the value of sterling and increased public debt. All of us should be praying that this works, for the alternatives are either a state-controlled wartime-style economy or printing money on a massive scale which would risk hyperinflation.
52 - I find myself in the curious position of agreeing with Roger. The biggest UK political change in the last few weeks is the turnaround in Gordon Brown’s self-confidence. Think back to last August, when he was holed up in his bunker. On the rare occasions he appeared, he looked as though he might be on the verge of cracking up.
Will this self-confidence last? I don’t know, but Cameron is now back on the attack, and I suspect it will get more personal and more nasty on both sides.
129 - I personally think McCain’s price will come out again. He has had a modest movement to him in the trackers but that will slow or stop as the best of Obama’s polling days have now dropped off the end of the trackers. The big thing against McCain now is TIME. Every day without significant good news will see his price drift out.
Still, that’s just my view and 7-1 isn’t a bad price if you really want to hedge.
It is quite clear that many contributors are highly educated men and women, with exceptionally good analytical skills.
I would be surprised if Ave It 08, doesn’t post a post Glenrothes reminder to PH on the lines of ‘Margaret Thatcher, Winston Churchill, your boys took one hell of a beating…’
PH = the East Sterling of political forecasting.
132 - Correct. We all grew up in a very close-knit farming community and there is nothing odd about that. So there.
Glenrothes a difficult call, last time I voted SNP, I had no doubts, the waters are muddier now.
On balance I’d go for Labour, just!
1. Salmond has looked a little less sure footed, flustered even.
2. The oil price swings, show that basing future prosperity on a
dwindling re-source maybe not a good idea.
3. In times of crisis, there is a tendency, not to risk anything
too radical, perhaps being a small unit may be a little risky.
4. Most importantly, the total lack if interest in England as to
whether the Scots remain part of the UK or not: if ‘yer gonna
p**s off, then just p**s off! Scots being contrary by nature
their attitude to that would be, ‘If you want us to go, guess
what? we’re not going!
Labour politicians using football like this is so dumb. It will always annoy more people than it doesn’t. Only way to use football is supporting the local team in the local press and keep quiet about it the rest of the time. Also, isn’t having English activists in Scotland about the same as having cockney activists in Liverpool or is it not as bad as that?
58: No you’re not alone!
(NB not YOUR not alone, another one of my bugbears…)
PH = the East Stirling of political forecasting.
I’ve had this email from Freddie Sayers of PoliticsHome:-
137 - The family tree runs vertical?
138 - I don’t think any of those factors are relevant in a by-election.
For me, Dunfermline was the ultimate by-election. Leaderless party in turmoil against the party of Government in relatively benign times less than a year after a comfortable General Election win. Result? You guessed it.
People aren’t really voting on whether Scottish independence would be good and the pros and cons of oil dependency. They are deciding whether or not to kick Brown, Darling etc squarely in the nuts.
87 Roger, you should have predicted that some people would agree with me. We all know what would have happened then!
Regarding Obama, I think the infomercial looks like it has played well. I doubt it will flip many votes, but may harden up some of the softer Obama votes. I suspect Clinton’s intervention in the race last night may help Barry by half a point or so too.
140 - There are clearly a number of people who believe that they’re being frightfully clever. Their lack of cleverness is usually exposed rather quickly on pb.com!
124. £4 billion over 3-4 years is tiny. The marginal effect could be quite large if it were targeted right, but in reality we know that it will end up in the hands of firms that were likely to survive in the first place. The problem is that you want to pick exactly those firms that wouldnt survive if they dont get the guarantee rather than those that would or those that will go under anyway. Most of these schemes end up being too conservative and lending to better businesses. Bad schemes end up being too generous and get ripped off by fraudsters and so on.
143 - Well, horizontal at best.
139. he has a lot of respect among the football community and will go down in history as a truly great manager. there won’t be many Scots out there who begrudge his successes in england.
96: (updated for credit crunch)
My sisters’ friends’ investments’s gone down by 40%.
142
accurate meaure.. best sample there is.. I think not. It is a measure, it is a sample, but I wouldnt go beyond that.
#138 No one has ever suggested that Scotland base its future prosperity on one resource, dwindling or otherwise. However, I’d certainly stake a bit of money on Scotland having a much better public finance position than the rest of the UK as we move into the downturn. Perhaps a modest surplus, whilst the UK heads towards substantial deficit.
And surprising as it may seem to some of you guys down south, what you think ain’t gonna have much effect on whether the Scots vote for independence or not. You lot are not that important! It will be a decision taken purely with Scottish self-interest to the fore, and nothing else. I get the feeling we are moving, albeit slowly, to that point.
I agree that Salmond et al, were caught out with Brown’s outburst, regarding the banks. But now that that has been comprehensively rubbished - not just by the SNP it has floundered.
As for the by election. Too close to call. It will be won by the party that has the best “ground campaign” between now and polling day - especially on polling day.
142. wondefully amusing e-mail. to paraphrase
a) our initial graph was misleading
b) our westminster ph100 are probably out of touch and all that they represent is a small sample of those coccooned in the westminster bubble whatever that means
138(4) Brilliant and so true!
153 - Exactly, time for Scotland to join the north Atlantic “arc of prosperity”….
61 Obama advert. This claims to show the whole thing. I’ve not checked it.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Obama_American_Stories_American_Solutions.html?showall
I think we’re setting ourselves up for a fall here, I’d hate the PHI 100 to beat us and get gloating rights. Perhaps a little less smuggery about our Glasgow East win?
I voted for the SNP, because I want Labour to win and I’m always wrong about my predictions. Though I do think the SNP will win, Labour voters just won’t turn out. Gordon’s doing well at the moment, but it’s hardly hope, optimism and change. Nationalism seems a better cause to turn out for than “an equity injection following the swedish model.” But as I said, I’m always wrong.
#156 Just ditching the Union first of all, would be enough at this stage!
156. Is it not the “axis of insolvency” ?
#160 Only when the UK is included, with the absolutely terrifying state of its fiscal position.
91. Glad to hear it
161. Yes but does it count if the media haven’t noticed ?
118 Aaron - Wm Hill are offering 5/6 on the SNP winning Glenrothes.
158. I voted Labour. I just think Glenrothes is a different battleground to Glasgow East and a less belligerent electorate.
I voted Labour - hope I am wrong.
128 This is the Selzer poll, and since the September version was a slight Obama outlier (all other August and September polls showing McCain ahead), and McCain has gained 2 points net since then, this is moderately good news for McCain - although I agree that that black support for Obama looks suspiciously low.
142. How convenient - so if they are right it will be a great call, if they are wrong an important indicator of the Westminster consensus being flawed. Talk about trying to have it all ways.
168 - These are political experts, of course they want to have it all ways.
Also voted Labour on this, and put a couple of quid on them on Betfair.
Just believe that there’s more of a core Labour vote up there willing to give Brown and co more time
167. “this is moderately good news for McCain”
I cannot see how a poll that shows McCain 1pt down in a state Bush carried by 20pts last time, which is not ostensibly battleground state, and is almost guaranteed not to be a tipping point state, with 4.5 days to go until polling day, is anything but diabolical news for John McCain.
Thanks James. I’ll make a note to hedge at the weekend!
UPDATE:
I’ve now added the Sayers email and new graphic to the article above.
Many new US polls, I’ll try to post them so it doesn’t take up too much space.
Survey USA
Kansas - McCain 58 Obama 37
Delaware - Obama 63 McCain 33
Massachusetts - Obama 56 McCain 39
Alabama - McCain 61 Obama 36
New York - Obama 62 McCain 33
Washington State - Obama 56 McCain 39
Oregon - Obama 57 McCain 38
No surprises in these safe states.
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
More to come from CNN/Time
To be honest, my gut says Labour “hold”, but it did so with Glasgow East as well, that’s why I think the “ground war” will be the tipping point. Yes the electorate is less belligerent in Glenrothes than Glasgow East, but that means they are less susceptible to the in-built Labour bias in the Scottish establishment and media, which have been spewing vituperative bile and nonsense for the last few weeks.
Despite the triumph it was portrayed as, I don’t think the bank recapitalisation has gone down as a “success” in Scotland, quite the opposite. And I scarcely believe it will have gone down well at all with the typical Labour support in the really depressed parts of the constituency - Methil, Buckhaven and Levenmouth. And by typical I mean the old style Labour support that you only get in a few parts of the country.
Great to see veteran Tories here saying “I voted Labour”. Now that wasn’t too hard was it.
129 Robert
Purely in terms of timing, now would not be a good time to place a hedging bet on McCain. Just assume that the polls stay roughly the same, a reasonable assumption. McCain’s price will drift as the clock runs down.
I also think there’s some ‘funny’ punting going in at Intrade which may be affecting the odds, but obviously I’m not sue of that.
Btw, did you back Et Maintenant yesterday? No…neither did I.
175.
From Ben Brogan (yesterday evening)
English MPs prop up Scottish Labour
An MP just popped in to report lots of tea-room muttering among the English Labour lot downstairs about the Gordon Brown request for volunteers to help in Glenrothes (Guido revealed it here a while back). The Labour operation is said to be short of footsoldiers so there is a big push on to get MPs and folk from CLPs up north this weekend. “Normally we rely on Scots MPs to save our bacon in England-only votes at Westminster. Now we are being asked to rescue Gordon’s bacon* in his own backyard,” is how it was put to me.
*The Prime Minister during PMQs today: “
R2000 -
Indiana Obama 47 McCain 47
http://www.wave3.com/Global/story.asp?S=9262796&nav=menu31_2
CNN/Time Polls
Ohio - Obama 51, McCain 47
Nevada - Obama 52, McCain 45
North Carolina - Obama 52 McCain 46
Pennsylvania - Obama 55 McCain 43
Arizona - McCain 56 Obama 43
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1854898,00.html
Polling from 23-28 so quite a large time frame.
171 He is one point down in a Indiana poll that was 5-9 points worse for him than all the others taken around the same time in September. That points to a better chance of carrying the state. In my book that is moderately good news. It does not mean he is just about to win the election.
We’re on our way back, will report tonight when I have a proper keyboard instead of this fiddly Blackberry.
On last thread’s discussion of how people will feel if Obama loses, struck by the comment in one of today’s papers that the only person who seems laid back about winning or losing is…Obama. Has there ever been a calmer candidate for POTUS?
177 - Intrade has been manipulated throughout, someone spending their money by giving others insanely good Obama prices. Very good of them to want to lose so much money I thought!
177 Really? I’m expecting the polling gap to narrow by the 6th and that to offset to an extent a drift in the McCain price as reality kicks in. There could easily be a shock poll that puts them quite close.
I know it’s bad, but there could be clear reasons for Obama’s vote being overestimated by polls. Think 1992.
181. Oh dear given up already ?
I voted Labour as Brown’s dead cat bounce back to the labour core of 30% must be driven from somewhere and that somewhere must be the homeland. No one else I have spoken to south of Crewe is remotely convinced by this Brown super hero nonsense.
181 - Calm presidents? Ronald Reagan and George W Bush spring to mind. You may not find those comforting precedents.
180. Fair enough – I guess I’m looking at it from a “who will win” point of view; and you are looking at Mac’s chances of averting a landslide. FWIW I don’t believe it will be a landslide although that NC poll from CNN posted by ukpaul looks deeply worrying for Mac, as do the early voting profiles in that state.
172 - I hope I’m not wrong now! The danger is of course some big bit of good news for McCain over the next couple of days (polls, terrorism etc). But otherwise it’s the same as football - if you’re team is 2-0 down at half time you’ll get long odds them winning but they will be much longer if they are 2-0 down with five minutes to play.
Glenrothes.
I think those who are pointing to the “groundwar” being the deciding factor in Glenrothes are absolutely right.
I suspect Labour are unsure where all their vote is, street by street, and will therefore lose this by-election.
Univ. of Texas
McCain 51
Obama 40
23% of Texans think Obama is a Muslim. If he does win this it’s going to be despite a lot of very stupid people.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6084678.html
185. But if Mike’s analysis, that Labour’s poll improvement is generated by increased support among non-voters from last time, is right then there is no reason this should translate into an improved byelection result where turnout will likely be lower than at the GE.
186 - Well, they both won twice. Although I am not sure Bush was that calm a candidate - I recall a jumpy-ness creeping in towards the end of the 2004 contest in particular as it narrowed in late October.
Mike I tried to vote and when I got through it said We`re sorry ,you`ve already voted in this poll This is not correct, this may cause a distortion of the results, I take it my vote was not counted. Has anyone else had this
153- “And surprising as it may seem to some of you guys down south, what you think ain’t gonna have much effect on whether the Scots vote for independence or not. You lot are not that important!”
Oh god, another SNP activist who thinks people in England wants Scotland to stay in the UK. Surprising as it may seem to some of you guys up north, but we dont give a sh*t what you do. You just aint important enough!
190. Ted Kennedy has managed to be re-elected for many years because of stupid people.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-bush.php
I just love alligators.
Malcolm
181 Nick P - Yes, Obama is remarkably cool [in the old-fashioned sense!]. That’s why, to my mind, the famous ‘3 a.m. call’ question ought to work in Obama’s favour; of the three main possibilities the US electorate have been presented with (Hillary, McCain, and Obama), my impression is that he would be the least likely to do something stupid and impetuous.
Could be wrong, of course - it’s just an impression.
Just voted Green for the first time ever, in the Kentish Town by-election (Camden borough council). You may recall that the previous, Lib Dem councillor had to resign after attempting to serve while living in Arizona…
I’m expecting a Lib Dem hold though, simply in terms of visibility - I’ve had about six different bits of propaganda from them, maybe two from the Greens, one each from Labour and the BNP, and absolutely nothing from the Conservatives (very disappointing). Having said that, maybe there has been a concerted effort by the Tories in other parts of the ward, and they’ll go on to lose by one vote thanks to my lack of support. Then again……
Bloomberg Poll
Florida - Obama 50, McCain 43
Ohio - Obama 49, McCain 40
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWTCxV.bUNQA&refer=home
Polled 25th to 27th.
175
I’m not sure what you mean by the electorate being “less belligerent” (to Labour) in Glenrothes than Glasgow East. Whilst some of the villages around Glenrothes are certainly old-time Labour, the town itself is far more volatile (being a new town) and, I would have thought, culturally less tied to Labour than Glasgow. Also, in general terms, the east of Scotland (which includes Fife)seems to be warmer to the SNP than the west-central vote. I still tip the SNP for a win here.
194 - I think most people in England would want Scotland to stay in the UK. Perhaps I am wrong on that and the Scots just p1ss my fellow countrymen off. I happen to think we have a great history together and hopefully a great future too, although I wouldn’t expect Scottish independence to have a major impact on my daily life were it to happen.
198 What’s the Parliamentary seat it is in.
156, It would not be any worse than our current UK arc of poverty.
195
“Ted Kennedy has managed to be re-elected for many years because of stupid people.”
Also Margaret Thatcher [the blessed Hilda] managed to be re-elected for many years because of stupid people.
Malcolm
203 - I think Iceland is in a marginally worse state than us in fairness!
160. Iceland , population 300K , is about the only country worse off than the UK, we have nothing to be smug about. Apart from a few basket case economies ours is easily the worst and worse than any of the Nordic countries.
202 - Holborn and St Pancras. Incumbent MP is bearded weirdo Frank Dobson……
194 - Has anyone ever actually done a poll in England about Scottish independence?
194 - Has anyone ever actually done a poll in England about Scottish independence?
Obama’s big ad:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA&eurl=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/
Sorry, twitch trigger finger!
199 Yes, the Bloomberg polls, bad for McCain, have been known for a couple of days, but I guess repeating them is good for morale
164 - thank you Peter, unfortunately that not much use to me since Hills have decided they don’t want my business!
207 Then the lack of high profile Tory activity was probably not a complete shock. Interesting seat the last election result and boundary changes mean it might just flicker on the Lib Dem radar, if they have a candidate that’s decent enough. How does it look.
201. Unfortunately we have clowns like 194. on both sides of the border. Regardless of how things go most sensible people care that the end result is that both Scotland and England prosper together or apart.
Nearly there
Harstad Poll (nope, never heard of them either - no link)
Idaho - McCain 55 Obama 32
MPR/Humphrey Poll
Minnesota - Obama 56 McCain 37
http://www.kxmb.com/News/290943.asp
Field Poll
California - Obama 55 McCain 33
Outlier of the day - Republican leaning pollster Mason-Dixon had McCain behind in PA by 2 last poll, when others were showing double digit leads, now he has him behind by four…
Obama 48 McCain 44
Believe it if you want a crumb of comfort but don’t bet the pension on it.
Phew, that’s it I think.
#178 Yes, Labour are typically useless when it comes to identifying their core vote in constituencies like Glenrothes which they have taken for granted for so long. They just don’t seem to have the activists, whilst I believe the SNP does have the motivated activists required for by-elections. I also believe that in numerical terms - the SNP is now the largest party in Scotland, when looking at membership.
#194 Er no….My point was that prevailing English public opinion (whichever way it happens to shift) is completely irrelevant to whether Scotland stays in the Union or not, most people in Scotland couldn’t really care. I’m no SNP activist either.
#201 Scotland and the rest of the UK can have a great history and future together. There is no earthly reason why that has to be done as part of the UK union, or conducted through the notions of Westminster parliamentary sovereignty.
#206 Totally agree. Even looking at the private sector credit/GDP ratio, the UK is in a serious pickle. FWIW I think Iceland could well come out of this crisis far in a far better position than the UK in the medium to long term. Never underestimate those Nordics, Icelanders especially!
213 Very wise!
215 Sadly it’s always easier to break things than build them.
re - Stupid people, I presumed people understood the difference between people being re-elected despite policy differences and people being elected despite people believing lies about them.
Daily Kos/R2000 tracker today 50-45, McCain up 1. More or less as expected and yesterday’s sample also 50-45. McCain now down only 3 among Independents. He needs to win those.
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/29
212 - I hadn’t seen the Bloomberg polls posted here, same as many of the SUSA ones.
217 - The key to Iceland’s recovery is geothermal energy. They’ll be fine - UK Plc is doomed long term.
213…i made the decision several years ago that i did not want to do business with Hills!!
216 Ukpaul is mistaken about the previous Mason-Dixon PA poll. Last time they polled, their 2 point deficit was average for the time - the doble diggit Obama leads in other polls came later.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html
223 The key to the UK doing well is, was and always will be it’s people.
sorry about the ‘. a very dirty habit.
Apologies if this has already been posted but have people been keeping an eye on the Times’ attempt to rank US presidents? Part 2 of 4 today:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5032040.ece
Usual Bush-bashing but what’s the No.1 going to be? Democrats Kennedy or FDR? Or will the GOP get a look-in with Lincoln or Teddy Roosevelt?
Yesterday’s tracker watch (using Gallup LV2), Obama lost an average of 0.25% and McCain made no average losses or gains (McCain lost overall if using the other Gallup models).
First couple today, Zogby and R2000, show Obama gaining in one, McCain gaining in one and losing in one. I expect ups and downs but no overall movement, today (or tomorrow) should be a day for Rasmussen to move a little to Obama, Gallup maybe the other way (as is their wont).
179, 199, 213 - Confirmation that Obama is comfortably ahead where he needs to be, and further indications of a high EV total. If he is indeed safe in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, then (if I’ve got my sums right) he’s safe for 353. IN(11) MO (11), ND (3), MT (3) still look pretty even, and GA (15) might not be out of reach.
So 353-381, unless you’re Jack W in which case 397.
Assuming the polls are right and nothing much changes, of course.
157.
” http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Obama_American_Stories_American_Solutions.html?showall ”
I thought that the perfectly-timed ‘big Bill endorsement was going to clinch it for Barry O but this is a great ‘firmer-up’.
As long as polling-booth racism doesn’t rear its ugly head, Mccain is an oven crisp for Palin to feed to her huskies.
Should Obama NOT win, he has a great future as a TV personality. Just a minute, isn’t that what POTUS does anyway?
O/T. Hadn’t heard this before, though it would explain why Barclays didn’t take the government shilling:
http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2008/10/why-barclays-dont-want-gordon-browns.html
214 - No, it’s not a shock at all. Certainly at a local level the Lib Dems are by far the most organised and active. But whether that will translate to the national level remains to be seen. Who knows, after my first foray into tactical voting maybe I’ll even vote Lib Dem at the general…!
229 I agree, and TIPP should move to McCain, WaPo to Obama. All in all it points to a flat day. McCain needs to pick up at least half a point on average, and preferably a whole point to be able to scare anybody with signs of momentum.
#226 That’s meaningless, though. It could be said the same for anywhere - including Iceland.
You need more than people. You need the right framework of laws, a decent economic position and a stable, sustainable and competitive environment. More importantly, however, in the developed, globalised world you need to find a niche. Iceland has a niche - geothermal energy. The key to success is by husbanding that niche with the pool of labour that exists in the country - and exists in every other country. I’d argue too Scotland has a very valuable niche in renewable energy and research, which with more encouragement could develop into something more sustantial.
The Service industries that the UK economy is based on are footloose. They can go anywhere and at any time, and would be well advised to in current conditions. If they consolidate with their global partners, then that strips the UK Service industry of its influence.
If the current crisis says anything, it says “don’t be dependent on the one sector of economic activity”. The UK is, and that is the Service Industry.
225 - Jan, that is not true, the average was above two percent, only one other poll since August gave a smaller lead than that.
538 confuse things slightly by not putting the polls chronologically but by worth, so it did look as though the double digits were then and not a couple of weeks later. Check 538 if you don’t believe me.
So, having stated that, how does a 2% lead equal the average?
234. Especially as Obama might get a bit of “Clinton Climb” or “Infomercial Injection” in the polls coming through over the weekend.
226 - ‘The key to the UK doing well is, was and always will be it’s people’
In that case, may I refer you to dreadful state of education in the UK and the lack of / poor quality of the qualifications of those leaving the system, relative to those in other, competing countries.
UK Plc is doomed.
233 Yes the Lib Dems will have to squeeze others heavily to stand a chance. Dobbo could help by standing down as it gets later any new candidate would have less and less time to bed down. What’s the Lib Dem candidate like in your view.
236 - That sounded a bit combative Jan, not meant that way honest! I take polls both before and after as showing the average of the time, if you take them just before then yes, it did look, similar. We have hindsight though and we can see other polls moving away quickly.
235 - Which approach do you recommend that countries should follow, a niche or not being dependent on one sector? Your post is hopelessly confused on the point.
119- Jack W- thanks.
I have now learned the art of control find to home straight onto your daily BUTT tracker without having to plough through some fairly bigoted posts.
238 UK universities are ranked second only to the US.
I’m just waiting for one or preferably two more decent poll results for Obama in Florida (i.e. 5%+ leads), thereby supporting Bloomberg’s earlier poll findings, before deciding in my mind whether he wins 325+ or 350+ ECVs. If the latter, I shall have a modest top-up spread bet at that level or below if available.
Just watched the 27-minute Obama ad in full.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA
Perhaps unintentionally, it’s a picture of a civilization in terminal decadence and decline.
245 Martin - So well-judged, then?
Kelvin McKenzie goes for George Osborne.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kelvin_mackenzie/article1871752.ece
A sign that Murdoch will back Brown or is he hedging his bets ?
221- Jan from Norway- as one of pbCOM’s more respected tipsters, I am afraid that you are losing all your capital on plugging McCain.
You are beginning to sound a bit delusional which is slightly inconsistent with being a good tipster.
243 - The best UK universities may be, but what of the rest of our “universities”? Likewise, our private schools are the best in the world, but what of the state sector?
247. Come come Tyson - You only say that because you want Obama to win!
If McCain wins i look forward to poster that comment back!
If I had any doubts about President-Elect Obama they would have been removed last night after that video - had tears welling in my eyes as you saw ordinary Americans facing problems they never thought they had to face - it was amazing - very well done - and resonated with us too as we face problems we never thought would happen to us - their are so many Americans out there who could resonate with this video - that is why it was so impressive - our neighbors daily tell us similar stories so do our friends and family … A+
@246:
I’m not entirely sure. To me, it gives an impression of an America that’s way too f*cked for one charismatic young messiah to fix in the two years before he loses Congress.
#241 When looking at the totality of economic activity, niche doesn’t necessarily have to imply only one sector or activity
Scotland has a “niche” when it comes to whisky production, a “niche” when it comes to producing those horrible tartan scarves etc. It can have a “niche” when it comes to renewable energy. Not a mutually exclusive concept, I’m sure you’ll agree.
247 It’s only Jan and Caveman who are making me nervous about the US election outcome. Probably best, however, to await the actual outcome before having a pop at either of them, egg on face, etc.
247 - Jan is a McCain supporter but has been pretty balanced and I think recognises that his man is not looking like winning just now. But there has been a bit of movement back to McCain in some tracker poll. Too limited and too patchy in my view to represent anything like enough for McCain. But you can’t simply ignore it.
@253:
Never let reality get in the way of a good bitch, seems to be a fairly universal rule here.
235. Can we have a little less economic prognostication without facts please. Services are not a single sector. They encompass many industries and the one in the UK isnt particularly footloose:
Service employment as % of civilian employment 2004:
Restaurants, retail, wholesale, hotels 24.2%
Transport, communication, storage 5.9%
Finance, insurance 4.1%
Real estate, renting and business services 15.4%
Public administration and finance 6.4%
Education, social work, health & other services 15.3%
This doesnt compare badly with other developed countries. You’ll notice that most of these arent footloose.
Taken from OECD in Figures 2006-07. Download a free copy from the OECD.
243 - The education system in the UK is a joke, churning out legions of illiterate feral hooligans lacking in respect for themselves or others, destined for a life on the scrapheap. Shamefully it’s not their fault, but that of teachers unions and politicians with more interest in dogma, forced diversity and political correctness than encouraging and helping students to achieve their full potential.
252 - So in fact, what you’re saying is that Scotland needs to find itself a range of niches. But that isn’t, if you review your own post, what you said.
No more Boom and Bust:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/3283829/UK-house-prices-likely-to-be-hit-by-forced-sellers-Nationwide-warns.html
257 - Do you ever worry you might read the Daily Mail a bit too much?
247 - Tyson, Jan isn’t saying McCain will win, I think he’s resigned to the fact he won’t but, and I agree with him, he won’t lose big either as many of the toss up states will fall into his corner.
I still think the Mason-Dixon are Republican leaning, their PA poll is an outlier and he doesn’t stand a chance there when other polls are showing much larger leads.
245 Martin
I too just watched the Obama ad. My thoughts were very different from yours but may be tainted by the fact that I live in the country for almost 6 months in every year.
The US has been badly lead for a long time; most of its presidents have handed over the shaping of the country to large corporations, many of them have now become international players on a grand scale. But in the American psyche there is a huge place for both the little guy and the small town.
The future of the US depends on its President loosening the shackles from the little guy and recognising that change is more effective when from the bottom up. We have all watched NuLabour shackling people and imposing top-down government and the mess that has resulted.
America will be fine because of the industry of its people and the sense of kinship that exists within the bulk of its communities.
It needs to get a grip on the international corporations that have little concern for anything other than a return to shareholders and a golden paratroop for executives. Sadly,the UK is in much worse shape.
Malcolm
257 EdP you are the joke. Go and live abroad if it’s so bad here. Grass is always greener and all that.
253- Peter- Caveman and Jan may be slightly influenced by their political allegiances on this one. Both though are putting their reputations as great tipsters (slightly) on the line as a result.
By the way big move on betfair on GOP EV’s< 150. I have plenty on at 18’s on this one. My second best bet after Biden.
Scratching around looking for value on others- bearing in mind I only play betfair.
BTW- IMO opinion Labour will lose Glenrothes, and quite comfortably.
#256 It isn’t about the numbers employed, but productivity and value added to GDP. Huge numbers are employed in retail, education, public finance and administration - but these aren’t very productive sectors of the economy. Thus, they don’t have much “value added”.
Three sectors of any economy: primary, secondary and tertiary. It is always best to have a good smattering of all three for any sustainable economy.
The usual load of bollox from the Nats. The reason UK plc is doing worse than just about everywhere apart from the Ukraine, Iceland and the toxinated prison island of Nauru is because THE UK IS GOVERNED BY INCOMPETENT SCOTS.
Blair, Brown, & Darling, all Scots, have been in charge of the British economy for eleven years: they are the ones who have spunked our credit, they are the ones who have left us potless. Supported, of course, by a Labour Cabinet stuffed with still more spendthrift Scots.
If Scotland had been independent for the last ten years these stupid Caledonian buttock-muppets would have been up in Edinburgh ruining the Scottish economy rather than the English economy, and instead we’d have had nice sensible Tories running England, and we’d be fine.
So if the Nats want to blame anyone for the tiara of insolvency in which Britain is the shining diamond, they should be blaming Scottish politicians, and thanking God that soon enough they will have some English people in Westminster who will run Scotland, and run it much better, because the chances of Scots now voting for independence are about the same as me being elevated to the College of Cardinals.
For these reasons and others, I have the Glenrothes result as a narrow Labour hold.
I voted that labour will win Glenrothes, it should be as safe as houses and, even now, it should still be safe.
“but these aren’t very productive sectors of the economy” - scrub sectors and make it “areas” just to avoid any confusion!
248 Well I was educated in the state sector 30+ years ago and I’ve got kids being educated in it now. And, compared to my time, kids today have a far higher standard of teaching, a much higher staff:student ratio and far stricter behaviour and anti-bullying codes than we had.
People have always banged on about declining educational standards - it’s all part of the “golden age” bollocks that the media love to evoke “I remember when you could go on holiday and leave your house unlocked blah blah blah” - load of cr*p IMO.
247. Well I know whose tips I would rather follow - Jan has a record of good commentary and shrewd suggestions, your record consists overwhelmingly of childish rants.
251 - Firstly it remains to be seen whether the Dems lose Congress in 2 years. Secondly it also remains to be seen how effectively Obama can ‘reach across the aisle’ and how effectively he can spin that he is so doing and the GOP are being intransigent.
Betfair Republican States won market
“15 or less” is currently 9/1, 16-20 is 2/1 - any value in these given the state of Jack W’s ARSE ?
228 The best surely has to be George Washington. Whether or not you approve of the break with Britain (I don’t), almost no one has ever combined the skills of a statesman and solider in the way he did.
The silliest comment, IMHO, came from Tom Baldwin, who won’t accord greatness to anyone who kept slaves or killed Indians. Greatness isn’t goodness, and by his yardstick, people like Caesar or Alexander aren’t great.
260 Read The Daily Mail? Ha ha. I’d rather poke out my eyes with a soldering iron. Dreadful rag.
261- ukPaul- Jan though points out the favourable trackers which would indicate that he still thinks McCain may pull off the popular vote and the election. Maybe worth asking him.
260. “Do you ever worry you might read the Daily Mail a bit too much?”
OECD says UK education is in freefall.
Government says it’s the best it’s ever been.
BBC promotes the government line every year after the exams.
And yet it’s the Mail that’s wrong?
#266 Aye. UK plc was in such sparkling shape in the early 1990s, much of the 1970s and 80s. We’ve not even been to the IMF to bail us out yet!
Nick Clegg will be in Glenrothes today, campaigning with the Lib Dem by-election candidate Harry Wills.
Labour are doomed?
Well it looks like a PoliticsHome prediciton to me! And we’ll see whose sample is the “very best” next week.
It pains me to say it, but I ticked the Labour box as I think the narrative has gone against Salmond a bit with all the Scottish banking fiasco.
267 I also plumped for a (narrow) Labour win at Glenrothes for a couple of reasons:
267 I also plumped for a (narrow) Labour win at Glenrothes for a couple of reasons:
267 I also plumped for a (narrow) Labour win at Glenrothes for a couple of reasons:
256 Thanks for that info Ken. The worst effects of the recession to the first and by far the largest element to which you refer (retail, restaurants, hotels, etc) should avoided as a result of the near 20% devaluation of the £ against firstly the Euro and now the $US.
281 Fernando - concise reasoning, it has to be said.
#278 What does the H in “HBOS” stand for again?
284 “Hardly”?
284 Halifax.
Allsopps are having their auction of reposessions at the moment, and their selling at about 25% above the guide price, as bargain-hunters step in.
@275:
The Daily Mail is wrong about everything. The sooner in life one realises this, the happier one can be.
Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracking poll (Pennsylvania)
O: 54 (+1)
M: 41 (-1)
287 - That’s why Dacre’s support for Brown is so comforting.
@284:
“Honky”.
re 32 Surely if the evidence shows him as having been born in Hawaill then nothing else matters. His mother could have been a Martian and taken him to emigrate to Venus 6 hours after his birth and it would be completely immaterial.
282. Do you mean via increased tourism? I wouldn’t bet on gaining a bit of market share outweighing the depressive impact of weak real income growth among both domestic and foreign customers, myself.
286 - Much better to wait until all hope has gone.
#285 Bingo.
275 - Translation: “Daily Mail says OECD says UK education is in freefall.” If you actually trouble yourself to take a look at the 2008 OECD report, you’ll find plenty of positives for the UK. But of course you don’t.
Sorry, I don’t know what happened there. The two reasons for the Labour win are;
1, The Libdems are strong in Fife and I think they may take some of the anti-Labour vote.
2. The main reason, however, is that the Glasgow by-election was a chance to give Brown a ‘bloody nose’. I just don’t detect the same mood now.
291 - There’s a sizeable chunk of the electorate from whom Martian heritage would be far preferable to Muslim.
288- ukPaul- Test gives McCain a 45% chance of winning PA. Good job she doesn’t bet!
247 I cannot see how my 221 give any reason to say I’m delusional. It’s a factual observation.
But everybody here knows I support McCain, will gain from him winning, at this moment do not think that he will win but not losing in a landslide. So I have recommended betting on McCain holding West Virgina (made that prediction when he was down, now everybody seem to agree), Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and with a hope for Florida.
My most controversial position might be that I don’t subscribe to the belief that this is all over and Obama is sure to win. That kind of group-thinking has never made anyone money in betting.
248. that isn’t fair or accurate. we have a large number of good universities, and if the top ones are doing well that indicates good students coming through. increasingly from state schools, it should be said.
I wonder if the 0.3% contraction in the US in the 3rd Quarter will benifit the Dems?
287. “The Daily Mail is wrong about everything. The sooner in life one realises this, the happier one can be.”
Not on education it’s not.
Part of PC education theory is that no one should fail as they consider it bad for their self esteem. Therefore they keep dumbing down the standards to try and ensure no one fails. Meanwhile countries like India and China push their kids get the best out of them. Britain won’t survive as a first world country unless PC education is scrapped.
The Mail is right and the BBC is wrong.
297 - Well the Martians haven’t murdered as many innocent civilians as the Muslims…
296 Um but the point is the mood had to be truly exceptional and ferocious to sweep Glasgow East away. Even if that mood has abated somewhat it may well still be enough to prevent Labour holding Glenrothes which although safe Labour could surely never match Glasgow East for its died in the wool Labour intensity. I think we’re talking max rang from 3 digit Labour win to 1,000 SNP win.
@302:
My partner, who is a teacher, would tell you that you’re completely talking out of your arse.
This notion of all teachers being Summer of Love hippies who believe academic success to be an outmoded bourgeois concept and have replaced it all with compulsory homoerotic drama and daily communings with mother Gaia’s bosom has never really existed outside the rabid fever dreams of Daily Mail Island.
So, essentially, you think it’s a bad thing that teachers want all kids to be able to reach a basic level of literacy and numeracy to allow them to function in normal society?
THOSE SCUM.
304. It also has to be remebered that much of the groundwork was done whilst the SNP were in the accendent. If they identified much of there support back then, surely they will have honed a message to keep voters on side despite the change due to Financial crisis. I should imagine the SNP have being re-visting those voters identified early on and little will have changed IMO.
Hasn’t NP been to the Scottish by-election? I presume this is why he has been not posting!
@303:
They tried, but then they all got a cold and died. If only fighting trrr was that simple.
303 - “Well the Martians haven’t murdered as many innocent civilians as the Muslims…”
Yes they did, first they secured a bridgehead around Woking and then attacked London from there. Devastating it was.
303 What about all those poor Victorians in Woking and Shepperton?
308/9 - Snap!
The chances of *anything* coming from Woking and Shepperton are a million to one, but still they come.
302 There is more testing and therefore more failure in the UK system than just about anywhere else on earth.
Pupil-centred education and the anti-exam culture disappeared at least 20 years ago.
267 the phrase safe as houses is an interesting turn of phrase in these times.
I voted SNP and bet Labour a few weeks ago as the value bet. Scotland has still got a bit more blaming of Labour to do since they were dumped from their control of Holyrood along with their lap dogs the Lib Dems. This is still surviving despite some reversals for Salmond in the past few weeks. The anyone but Gordon’s party vote will go to the SNP which will cover any return to the Labour core vote.
311 Do you think Rick Wakeman frequents these parts?
305. “This notion of all teachers being Summer of Love hippies who believe academic success to be an outmoded bourgeois concept…etc”
The people who believed in all that took over the teacher training colleges and the university education departments many years ago.
304 Punter, I wouldn’t disagree with a lot of that. A narrow Labour win, which is what I expect, still represents a poor result for them. A month back I would have backed the SNP for sure. I don’t think Brown would have committed his own time and his wife’s presence unless he felt the mood had changed.
re 193 hrp887 are you using an NHS computer by any chance?
266. Matron get Sean his medication , think he needs a double dose today , he is more delusional than usual.
“Labour Gaining in Glenrothes” - sounds just like a tired Lib Dem type slogan. Are they so devoid of imagination or are they really that desperate!
314 - The chances of that are a million to one.
316. So you are betting on Brown because you trust his political judgement..hmmm..I might change my mind and back the SNP
320 - I’ll have a fiver if you’re laying those odds, antifrank…
“Pupil-centred education and the anti-exam culture disappeared at least 20 years ago.”
Not inside the educational establishment it didn’t. The testing has been government imposed against strong resistance.
316. Brown does not have a clue, both visits were much derided and could not have garnered any support for Labour. More likely to have cost them votes , much like multimillionaire football managers talking the usual nonsense today. Labour campaign is dire, it will be an SNP win.
Just watched the Obama programme, I caught the last part of it on a CBC live feed earlier so also saw the last few minutes which was live footage from a rally in Florida (not on the link provided).
What struck me most was how well constructed it was, not well made (although it was very professional with more than a nod to Ken Burns) but that the emotional structure was very well done.
Having seen just the end it didn’t affect me in the same way as seeing the whole programme with a build through issues and little bits of biography, mostly from individual Americans bit also for Obama. By the time it got to the teacher section I realised that this is what it was doing, creating that emotional connection with those it was aimed at. Teaching obviously being my area, this was the moment when I felt it transcended pure political broadcast status. The final section about America and all being the children of those who arrived there with hope (well, not native Americans at least) finally scooped up anyone not previously included.
Musically, again it started schmaltzy but, as Noel Coward said, there’s nothing so potent as cheap music. Subtle hints of country and blues at points, nods to Aaron Copland, with the final hymn-like rising melody section getting an emotional response even if you may not have agreed with the politics.
Who was it aimed at? I’d say Democrats who might not vote for Obama and undecideds who just needed a clincher. Mostly I think it was for the former, those who might votr for McCain but were shown what they were losing.
The final live section was obviously the emotional release and call to action, with entreaties to people to go out and get others to vote (not on the video).
Given our attitude to PPBs I can’t help thinking that, instead of ten or five minutes here and there, the parties would be better served by a longer (in this case 30 minutes) broadcast where they could build an argument). It would be repeatable and would give a better sense of what parties overall would do and what they are about.
The figure to look for in polls is that of McCain supporting democrats, if anywhere that’s where this might help.
322 - I’m not sure that musical allusions are precisely mathematically calculated.
Interesting to note that Mike’s poll on this thread hasn’t varied by more than 1%-2% all along and remains 2:1 in favour of the SNP. We’re a consistent lot on here if nothing else!
War of the Worlds (musical version) is *not* by Rick Wakeman, it’s by Jeff Wayne!!
@326:
The ‘anything coming from Mars’ market is pretty illiquid too. Occasional Rekall, Inc. profit taker, but no more than that.
317 ….and do you live in Brum?
328 - Good point. It was a couple of years before my time. Could you explain what “Forever Autumn” has to do with the plot? It seems totally unconnected.
325 ‘not well made’ should read ‘not merely well made’.
316 Changed enough for a glimmer of hope yes but that is all surely. In any case given that people had grown used to the idea of a 5,000+ SNP win, you can see how Brown may feel that just restricting the SNP to a small margin of victory if that was the result could then be spun as a triumph.
New thread on the Obama 30 minute commercial
331 - If people really want to know, this is the narration surrounding ‘Forever Autumn’
“JOURNALIST: For three days I fought my way along roads packed with
refugees, the homeless, burdened with boxes and bundles containing their valuables. All that was of value to me was in London, but by the time I reached their little red-brick house, Carrie and her father were gone.
—
Fire suddenly leapt from house to house, the population panicked and ran - and I was swept along with them, aimless and lost without Carrie. Finally, I headed Eastward for the ocean, and my only hope of survival - a boat out of England.
—
As I hastened through Covent Garden, Blackfriars and Billingsgate, more and more people joined the painful exodus. Sad, weary women, their children stumbling and streaked with tears, their men bitter and angry, the rich rubbing shoulders with beggars and outcasts. Dogs snarled and whined, the horses’ bits were covered with foam… and here and there were wounded soldiers, as helpless as the rest. We saw tripods wading up the Thames, cutting through bridges as though they were paper - Waterloo Bridge, Westminster Bridge… One appeared above Big Ben.
—
Never before in the history of the world had such a mass of human beings moved and suffered together. This was no disciplined march - it was a stampede - without order and without a goal, six million people unarmed and unprovisioned, driving headlong. It was the beginning of the rout of civilization, of the massacre of mankind.
A vast crowd buffeted me towards the already packed steamer. I looked up enviously at those safely on board - straight into the eyes of my beloved Carrie! At sight of me she began to fight her way along the packed deck to the gangplank. At that very moment it was raised, and I caught a last glimpse of her despairing face as the crowd swept me away from her.”
330 Yep, my mistake. Same musical genre though.
337 - Gordon Brown is analogous to the Martians.
190- And those same people will vote for a Democratic congressman to express their rage at the ineffectiveness of the GOP, whom they believe runs Congress (a recent poll showed only 50% of Americans know that the Democrats control Congress).
340 I doubt national knowledge has ever been too hot on who controls Congress. It’s the White House . That’s all they care about. This is all about Bush and his unpopularity dragging the GOP down like a cement bath on its legs not to any great national myopia on Congress. Just deal with it and make sure Bush doesn’t appear in public again for about ten years.
Off topic but with today’s news of 15% house price falls (with a lot more to come), and the 71% rise in repossessions earlier this week, I thought it was a good time to quote Gordon Brown from his 1997 budget speech.
“For most people the acquisition of a house is the biggest single investment they will make. Homeowners rightly expect their investment to be protected by sensible policies pursued by Government.
I am determined that as a country we never return to the instability, speculation, and negative equity that characterised the housing market in the 1980s and 1990s.
Volatility is damaging both to the housing market and to the economy as a whole.
So stability will be central to our policy to help homeowners. And we must be prepared to take the action necessary to secure it.
I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery.
I will raise stamp duty from 1 per cent to 1.5 per cent on property sales above £250,000 and to 2 per cent for property sales above £500,000. This will take immediate effect after the Budget resolution has been voted by the House.”
341- It’s not about myopia, it’s about ignorance. I don’t agree with you, though, that the American public has always been so ignorant. I would anecdotally suggest that never since the beginning of the era of universal public education has the American public (particularly the native-born public) been so clueless about politics as well as all of the periperal subjects that inform politics (history, geography, civics, etc.). Of course, given the pathetic state of public knowledge and education about all things political or even related to politics in the U.S., one is indeed tilting at windmills in criticizing public ignorance in elections. It must, sadly, be simply accepted and accounted for.
I commented here a few months ago that American voters don’t know what they’re doing until they’ve already done it, and this year will be no exception. It will only be in 2010 that voters attempt to correct, in typical ham-fisted fashion, whatever they don’t like about the consequences of this election. I would expect, at the very least, that public perception about such rudimentary issues as who it is who controls Congress will begin to correspond to reality in the next few years (although I don’t attribute this to a heightened state of education).
But you’re certainly right that Bush’s lack of popularity is at the center of GOP toxicity as well as the Democratic sense of invincibility. I will take both the Franken/Coleman Senate race in Minnesota as well as the Murtha House race in Pennsylvania as signs of just how bad it is, or isn’t, for the GOP. If the Democrats prevail in those races, it will truly send the signal that there is really no such thing as an unelectable Democrat (Franken being a self-confessed chronically angry tax-dodging comedian, and Murtha being a similarly angry guy who can’t seem to stop insulting his constituents on national television as racists and rednecks). Democrats’ sense of invulnerability will likely reach heights previously unseen (with all the dangers inherent in such hubris) if they can manage to win even races such as these, and I think there’s a fair chance they will.
343 Come on it’s Minnesota not Utah. Coleman is just very lucky the Democrats picked about the only Democrat he’d stand a chance against and even then only with the Ventura people probably taking more votes off Franken than Coleman to narrow the gap.
343 I see though that Frum is calling on the RNC to give up on McCain and help Coleman and Sununu who he thinks have the best chance to keep the GOP at filibuster level.
305
Well, the Martians haven’t killed as many innocent Muslims the US military.
Malcolm