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Month: September 2008

Is it worth a punt on the Tories getting their poll lead back?

Is it worth a punt on the Tories getting their poll lead back?

Does a 16%-20% margin seem like a value bet? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has put up a range of markets linked to David Cameron’s big conference speech tomorrow – the most interesting being the one featured in the panel above – what polling lead will the Tories have in the first post-big speech survey? After some consultation with me this will be settled on the basis of the party shares in the first YouGov poll where the fieldwork starts after…

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How dangerous is the crisis for the Tories?

How dangerous is the crisis for the Tories?

Could it be a game-changer for Labour? There was an emergency statement by David Cameron at the Tory conference this morning in which he sought to look statesmanlike and ensure that his party cannot be portrayed by Labour as opponents of tighter regulation. It will also mean that he gets onto the bulletins during what will be a highly charged day. The key point was an an announcement that the party would be withdrawing its objection to aspects of a…

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Could a bail-out deal turn the race round?

Could a bail-out deal turn the race round?

Would an ending of the crisis put McCain back in contention? So it’s another day and for Barack Obama and John McCain there are just five weeks more left before Americans vote to decide the next occupant of the White House. The chart, based on the judgement of punters on the Betfair betting exchange says it all. Two weeks ago McCain’s chances of success based on his betting price were put at 45%. This morning they are about 28% –…

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Will Labour be disappointed with this?

Will Labour be disappointed with this?

What do we make of no conference bounce? …..meanwhile, away from the news from Washington, the September ComRes poll for the Independent is just out on the firm’s web-site and the figures are featured above. When it is published in the paper in morning it will show comparisons with the newspaper’s August survey – not the last poll from the firm that was completed just before Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That’s a pity because the only comparisons that really matter…

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Is Gord’s conference bounce being sustained?

Is Gord’s conference bounce being sustained?

What will the latest ComRes poll have in store? I’ve just been told that there’s a new ComRes national voting intention poll which will be published tonight. The last survey from the pollster, taken straight after the Lib Dem conference but before Labour’s gathering started, had the worst figures for the Tories in months. The totals then were CON 39%: LAB 27%: LD 21%. If ComRes have followed their normal pattern then fieldwork would have started on Friday and continued…

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So has Osborne recovered the initiative for the Tories?

So has Osborne recovered the initiative for the Tories?

Click panel to view BBC news clip What do we think of the council tax plan? After last year’s dramatic Monday at the Tory conference when George Osborne’s inheritance tax plan helped turned the political narrative on its head there was a degree of expectation when he got up to speak this morning. Alas the conference is being over-shadowed by the dramatic developments in the financial world and whatever Osborne said it was going to get nothing like the attention…

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Could sacking Palin be McCain’s next gamble?

Could sacking Palin be McCain’s next gamble?

Would the global financial collapse be the peg to hang it on? As the chart below shows there’s been a dramatic change in the fortunes of John McCain over the past fortnight. From a position where he was heading towards evens his declining opinion poll ratings have meant that he’s now moved out to more than 2/1 on Betfair. A growing concern must be the performance of his VP pick, Sarah Palin. While the world was distracted by the financial…

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Austria 2008 – live election results

Austria 2008 – live election results

Molterer (ÖVP), Van der Bellen (Greens), Strache (FPÖ), Haider (BZÖ), Faymann (SPÖ) Will the far-right surge result in another Grand Coalition? Welcome to live coverage on PB of the 2008 Austrian election results. The snap election was called after the Grand Coalition collapsed after only 18 months in office. More background is available here from the earlier PB article and here from Wikipedia. Early indications are that there has been a surge in support for the two far-right parties, the…

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