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Month: June 2007

Is this man Labour’s secret Tory mole?

Is this man Labour’s secret Tory mole?

Can Leigh force his party off the middle-ground? This is Edward Leigh – the anti-abortion, anti contraception, anti-genetic research and anti-gay rights campaigner who is calling for his party to shift the policy focus away from the centre ground back to traditional “Tory values”. Perhaps he ought to read this piece by the usually well-informed writer, who also uses the term “Mole” in the First Post. Earlier in the week he wrote on the Davies defection: “..What is becoming increasingly…

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Could the by elections halt the Brown honeymoon?

Could the by elections halt the Brown honeymoon?

Is July a good by election month for the LDs? One of the big bets of the Gordon Brown era has been that “Labour losing a by election” might be the first to happen from a range of options listed by William Hill. Given that almost all the other items in the market – “Raith Rovers winning promotion”, “A full UK withdrawal from Iraq”, “Gordon and Sarah having another child” etc – seem far more remote the 10/1 that was…

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“Labour 4% ahead with ICM” – reports

“Labour 4% ahead with ICM” – reports

Gordon gets his predicted bounce at last There are reports of two polls for tomorrow’s papers showing Labour leads with the ICM survey for the Guardian having a the party at 39% against the Tories on 35%. I’ll report more as soon as there is news. UPDATE 2130: The actual shares in the polls are changes on the previous poll from the pollster are: ICM (in the Guardian) CON 35% (-2): LAB 39% (+7): LD 18% (-3) YouGov (in the…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Do Local Elections Point to Parliamentary Results? Very often, the answer to this question is No. Good sets of local election results for the Conservatives in 2000 and 2004 were followed by big defeats in general elections the following year. More specifically, seats where a party has a big lead in local elections one year, may produce an equally big lead for another party at Parliamentary level. To take one example, the Liberal Democrats have been a strong force in…

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Is it worth betting on an early general election?

Is it worth betting on an early general election?

New spread market: How many weeks to go? Spread-betting works best when it is linked to a specific numerical outcome such as “how many seats will Labour get?” or “how many states will the Democrats take in the 2008 White House Race?”. You look at the prices and decide whether the total will be lower, in which case you sell, or higher in which case you buy. You choose how much you want to bet and that becomes your stake…

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PBC chosen to be part of the National Web Archive

PBC chosen to be part of the National Web Archive

Site seen as being of “potential historical importance” Politicalbetting has been chosen by the British Library as one of very few blogs that will form part of the UK National Web Archive. A number of institutions are involved and the British Library is handling “sites of research value reflecting national culture and events of historical importance. These could include web pages focusing on key events in national life, museum web pages, e-theses, selected blogs to support research material and web-based…

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Has Jack Straw been sold short?

Has Jack Straw been sold short?

Should he have got a better job for fixing Gord’s coronation? In the immediate aftermath of Jack Straw’s appointment as Brown’s campaign manager there was a widespread assumption that the man who has been both Home secretary and Foreign Secretary would be in line a top ministerial post. Following his hugely effective operation that closed off other potential contenders and then stopped any challenge being mounted the chances of Straw getting something really big appeared to be a near certainty….

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Is Labour ready to forgive the gang of four split?

Is Labour ready to forgive the gang of four split?

Will Shirley Williams be able to “re-rat”? Winston Churchill famously coined the phrase “Anyone could “rat” but it took a certain ingenuity to “re-rat” after being elected as a Conservative MP, switching to the Liberal four years later, and then re-joining the Tories. With the news that Gordon Brown has been in conversation with Shirley Williams the question arises – will she be able to pull off what Churchill did and “re-rat”. For in 1981 Shirley, along with Roy Jenkins,…

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