Should we be betting on a 2007 election on Betfair’s new market? Is it worth betting on a 2007 general election on the new date market that’s just been opened on Betfair? You have to select in six month bands going through to January 1st 2010. There’s little money on offer at the moment but this will build up as the market becomes known. What are the chances that the author of the new book on Courage, Gordon Brown will…
Brown’s party boosted by big increase in intention to vote News of the final poll for May is just out and shows a big move to Labour. The headline figures from the Ipsos-Mori poll are with changes on last month CON 37% (-1): LAB 35% (+4): LD 18% (-2). Like all Ipsos-Mori polls the figures shown are based on those who say they are “certain to vote” and given what has happened with other pollsters it had been expected that…
What’s his reward for delivering Brown his coronation? Looking back over the past three months the move that secured the leadership and Number 10 for Brown without the bother of a contest was the appointment of Jack Straw to run the Chancellor’s campaign. At the time Straw himself was being tipped as a contender and everybody assumed that he must have been promised something big. But what was that going to be for the former boss of both the home…
Could the Republicans choose a movie actor again? Big moves on the Republican White House ’08 nominee markets following the news this afternoon that the lawyer turned movie actor turned Senator, Fred Thompson looks certain to run. He’s now trading at just over 4/1 and has moved into the third favourite position. The idea that the party, which had its most successful years when ex-actor, Ronald Reagan served two full terms, might choose someone similar has been the cause of…
Brown’s party moves up four points and more gloomy news for Ming A two thread day on PBC with news of the new poll here and the betting reaction to the Newsnight Deputy Leader hustings below. The May Communicate Research poll for the Independent shows a big boost for Labour this morning up four points from the 27% share that the pollster recorded in May. These are the figures with changes from last month: CON 35% (-1): LAB 31% (+4):…
The money moves to Cruddas after the Newsnight hustings The above chart records the changing fortunes on the Betfair betting exchange of the four outsiders in the race for the Deputy Leadership before, during, and in the aftermath of last night’s Newsnight hustings on BBC2 which started at 10.30 pm. To watch the debate click here. Most of us have opinions about political outcomes – gamblers are prepared to back up their views with hard cash and that’s what these…
With Labour’s deputy hopefuls preparing for their ordeal by Paxman on Newsnight tonight and Tony Blair on his farewell tour of Africa it’s the Tories who are once again making the headlines. The conventional thinking is that this should be harming Cameron. I’m not so sure. The notion of a grammar school is from a bygone age and the Graham Brady looks like just the sort of Tory that the leadership are not going to worry about sacrificing. He’ll have…
Would the Cameron project flounder without Cameron? In recent weeks we have had threads about the successors to both Brown and Campbell but so far we’ve not ventured into post-Cameron Tory territory – who would be leader if, for whatever reason, the party had to find a replacement? In many ways this seems a more remote possibility – Cameron’s made progress for his party in the polls and at forty is considerably younger than either Campbell or Brown. Also there’s…