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Month: March 2007

Could the 1997 pensions raid come to haunt Gordon?

Could the 1997 pensions raid come to haunt Gordon?

Times wins two year battle to force the Treasury to hand over papers With Labour’s leadership changes only weeks away the main lead in the Times this morning has the potential to cause bother for Brown as his team try to orchestrate a succession without a real challenge. For the “quality” paper that has become NuLab’s most loyal supporter has just won a Freedom of Information act fight to get details of the advice ahead of Gordon’s famous “pensions raid”…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

How Will the Liberal Democrats Do on May 3rd? I’m reluctant to comment on this subject, as there are a couple of posters to this site who consider that I display my inherent Conservative bias by refusing to predict anything other than stunning success for the Liberal Democrats in local elections. Nevertheless, it is only right that I do so, given that I have posted about Labour and the Conservatives in the past two weeks. The Liberal Democrats’ performance in…

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The betting story of Blackpool 2005

The betting story of Blackpool 2005

How the betting records show that Hitchens was wrong What happened at the Tory conference at Blackpool in October 2005 has become one of those pivotal moments in UK politics and, as we saw, in the programme on Cameron on Channel 4 by Peter Hitchens, a number of myths have developed which don’t fit with the facts. For the above chart shows the implied probabilities based on bets betting odds of the four leading candidates from the start of the…

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The Political Punter on 18 Doughty Street at 7.30pm

The Political Punter on 18 Doughty Street at 7.30pm

I’ve just recorded a 30 minute programme on my book, The Political Punter, which will be shown tonight at 7.30 pm on the 18 Doughty Street channel. I had a good discussion with fellow blogger, Iain Dale, who presents the programme. The book itself will be launched at the PB party on April 17th. It can be pre-ordered from here. UPDATE – The programme can be view by clicking this link. Mike Smithson

Are public sector workers deserting Labour?

Are public sector workers deserting Labour?

What behind these big shifts in opinion? I’ve just come across some fascinating data on the Ipsos-Mori website which might prove to be highly significant at the next election. For as the charts show there has been a significant move by public sector workers away from Labour in a relatively short time. If they don’t return that could present a big challenge for Gordon Brown. For after the big expansion of the public sector jobs under Gordon’s management of the…

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Is Charles Clarke still trying to kill the Brown bid?

Is Charles Clarke still trying to kill the Brown bid?

The ex-home secretary and Miliband step up the rhetoric Just when the Labour succession seemed to be all settled there’s another big move from the one of the chancellor’s most long-standing party opponents – the ex-home secretary, Charles Clarke. In a speech to the Royal Television Society Clarke, according to the Indy report, rejected ideas that there is “”broad consensus” across the party about the leadership succession. “The leadership is not a done deal to be sorted out within our…

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Mori puts the Tories 8% ahead

Mori puts the Tories 8% ahead

These are the figures, just published on the Ipsos-Mori website, of the first national political poll by the firm since January. As is usual the headline figures are restricted to those “certain to vote”. It should be noted that the survey involving 1,983 adults aged 18+ at 176 sampling points across Great Britain was conducted face-to-face on 9-15 March 2007. So the poll is a little bit old and took place before the the last CR, ICM and YouGov surveys….

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Which poll will Gordon pick this morning?

Which poll will Gordon pick this morning?

Tory CR lead slashed as Populus predicts a Scottish Labour collapse The first two of three polls which are expected today have produced good and bad news for Labour. Communicate Research for the Independent has the following shares with comparisons on a month ago CON 35% (-5): LAB 31% (+2): LD 20% (+3). Populus for the Times on May’s Scottish election has SNP 38%: LAB 28%: LD 15%: CON 14% in the constituency section. On the regional list it is…

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