Polling analysis: Why don’t Labour voters like Brown?
February 26th, 2007
Examining the details from last week’s ICM and YouGov polls
We have had to wait nearly a week for this but these are the details from the poll that has been the talk of Westminster and which has promoted a big change in the Brown price in the Labour leadership betting market.
The ICM full data is from the survey last Tuesday that showed Labour 13% behind if Gordon Brown is named as leader against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems.
The above is a snap-shot and shows how voting preferences changed compared with the main figures when the named leader question was asked.
For me the big question is whether people are switching to the Tories because Brown is named or whether this is simply the Tories being helped when their party is linked with the name of their leader. My guess is that is is mostly the latter.
The same story is repeated in the detail from YouGov’s poll on Friday when its forced choice question was put.
Again Gordon Brown is failing to secure the support of a significant proportion of declared Labour voters.
Mike Smithson
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Why don’t Libdem voters like Ming?
Interesting that the LDs are splitting almost evenly on the forced choice question on the YouGov poll; the Tories may be getting less nasty.
And I think I should be able to make the pb.c party-looking forward to putting names to faces.
Polls! Many thanks Mike for the analysis.
Interesting variation in YG vs ICM. YG shows a 50-50 split of LD voters on forced choice Lab-Tory. But ICM has it 2/3 Lab to 1/3 Tory. Any ideas on why the discrepancy?
As to why don’t Labour voters like Brown. How long have you got? Ten years of whiny backstabbing against his superior (in both senses) Tony Blair. Who would like that? He is unpleasant in his mannerisms and reportedly not a good colleague. And perhaps they don’t like that under him council tax has doubled, greatly affecting those on a fixed income as it’s a regressive tax. I don’t think the WLQ helps him either.
3.”He is unpleasant in his mannerisms”
Do you know him, Commentator? Have you ever met him? If so, was he unpleasent to you?
political donations raised in the last quarter of 2006 now released by the Electoral Commission.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6398207.stm
1-Andrea, do you really have to ask?!
Brown still at 1.26 on betfair - there is money laying him.
Well clearly these people that ICM interviewed are not the 100 movers and shakers that Ms Malleable intensively interviewed for her er stunning piece used by that ambassador of high brow journalism, aka The Sun.
6. Big Mak. Tonight I’m keen to questions I can already forecast the reply to
For ex I think Commentator will reply to my questions at 4 with “He apparently once shut the phone down to Osborne”
9.Andrea, are you in a mischievous mood tonight?
It is worth noting that the last two Populus polls have shown a narrowing of the Conservative lead on the Brown/Campbell/Cameron named leader question.
http://www.populuslimited.com/pdf/2007_02_06_Times.pdf
This may be due to the phrasing of the Populus question:
Now I’d like you to think ahead to the next election, expected in 3 or 4 years’ time. Imagine that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown takes over from Tony Blair as Labour leader and the Conservatives are led by David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats by Ming Campbell. Which party would you vote for – or would you vote for another party or not vote at all?
The focus on Brown taking over from Blair makes this IMO a better indication of what is likely to happen than the ICM and YouGov hypotheticals.
10. ChrisD, it depends on what senseof mischievous you’re referring too…. if it’s “playful in a naughty or teasing way”, well, yes. If it’s “irritating; causing harm, injury, or damage”, well, I hope not!
Mickey Crick on newsnight tonight - digging around Ronnie Cohen and Gord…
12.Andrea, I was thinking of mischievous in a playful and teasing way when I asked the question.
13. Seems to be a bit of focus on Ronnie Cohen.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=301872007
15 - he was in the news some time ago
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6178627.stm
Andrea - mannerisms are not the same as manners; anybody can see a mannerism who watches somebody on TV. Brown has unpleasant ways about him. He scowls, he frowns, he threw paper petulantly at George Osborne and most of all he has a toad-gobbling-fly trick he does with his lower lip that I find off-putting.
I have not heard many Parliamentary colleagues praise his charm and friendly gregariousness, so his manners may be the same thing, but I can’t make a judgement about those; anybody with with a TV set, though, can decide whether he has endearing mannerisms or not!
I have just seen Barry Monk on Despatches and you really couldn’t make it up! He is whispering into his web cam apparently risking all if the NHS find out what he’s doing! He whispers how he is forced to go out to buy his own note paper because the NHS cant pay for it! He looks like he’s freezing. Ivan Denisovitch had it easy compared to Barry!
I’m a little surprised that Channel 4 didn’t take the trouble to find out BEFORE starring him in a program about the ‘disasterous’state of the NHS that he was standing as a Save Bedford Hospital Candidate at the next election!
PS. He’s completely batty!
17. “mannerisms are not the same as manners; anybody can see a mannerism who watches somebody on TV”
Frankly I can pick up every politician and find something in their mannerism that I don’t like.
” have not heard many Parliamentary colleagues praise his charm and friendly gregariousness”
maybe you should expand your gossip sources…you never know those, you can always find something new
If anybody can come up with some on the record praise, let’s hear it!
You are the king of finding stuff online Andrea… I bet there are ten articles on Gordon Brown’s abrasiveness for every one about his friendliness
You’re onto a loser here, Andrea - Brown has acquired nicknames like “the Dour One” for a good reason. He is publicly known as sour, miserable, dour, grumpy, caustic etc. That is his image when you get down to personalities. Nobody has given him any other nicknames, such as “my little pixie” or “chipmunk” attached to Hazel Blears etc. That’s because grumpiness and dour seriousness are what come across in his public image.
At the last election Labour attacked the Lib Dems on the basis that “A vote for the Lib Dems will let the Tories in“.
It looks as though the response of some Lib Dem voters is now to vote for that nice Dave Cameron…
What I find interesting in the ICM churn figures is that the Lab-Tory switchers [Blair's Tories] are almost balanced by the Lib Dem-Lab switchers [Iraq Deserters]. What really tips the balance is the Liberal Tories that Cameron is attracting from the Lib Dems.
What can Labour/Brown do about that? On the face of it nothing.
It is an interesting change though.
21. Commentator, I’m not the loser her.
As ChrisD noted earlier, I’m in a teasing mood…I’m just trying to push you to label Brown with unpleasant terms…just to say “ah, Theresa May was right….those tories, always ready to angage in personal attacks to the personality of someone they didn’t even know basing just on hearsay instead of focusing on the serious matters that the country is facing”
But it’s too easy with you…
“Nobody has given him any other nicknames, such as “my little pixie” or “chipmunk” attached to Hazel Blear”
Frankly this speaks volume more on the people who gave them those nicknames than on HB herself.
And who the hell calles her “my little pixie”?
I think he aquired “The Dour One” from CCO’s online programme “:Blue2Win” which has happily been discontinued. It’s replacement “Herbert Proper” is having some teething trouble at the moment and one or two of his posts have been borderline racist. Perhaps Ann Winterton had some imput? Nonetheless I expect Brown to surprise you all. Few people who know him well speak badly of him.
“It looks as though the response of some Lib Dem voters is now to vote for that nice Dave Cameron”
But that was before TBWA drew up that 48 sheet with 12 bore in hand and Bambi in his site………
Andrea - I didn’t say you were the loser, I said you were “on to a loser” ie backing the wrong horse (betting speak). Those nicknames for Hazel Blears are totally affectionate and reflect her small size and perky, smiling manner (Iain Dale gave them to her).
I’m just saying that the only nickname I’ve seen appended to GB with any regularity is “the Dour One” whereas Blair, for example, had “Bambi” and “St. Tone” amongst his.
This must be down to his unfortunate unpleasant mannersism, which I maintain are the anti-Clinton! (charm, charisma)
Off for the night, sleep well
I want to know who calls Blears “my little pixie”…can she use as a slogan in her Deputy Campaign?
“Vote Hazel, your little pixie”!
26. Commentator, I was just teasing you.
Hope you didn’t take it bad
Btw, are those nicknames for Hazel Blears really totally affectionate?
I really thought it was a way to make fun of her and her always OTT cheerfulness!
Commentator: The difference between LibDem attitudes in the two polls is that the question is different. ICM suggests that twice as many LD voters would actually switch to Labour than Tories if GB were the Labour leader. YouGov suggests that LD voters in general, including all those who would not switch, think it a toss-up. You could argue that Cameron has some potential, not yet achieved, support there, among LD voters who prefer him but currently still plan to vote LD.
Gordon is well-liked by most people who meet him - when he came to Broxtowe and spent some hours at local schools he bowled over a lot of not very political people with his face-to-face charm. The public mostly know him as the serious chancellor, sternly keeping his hand on the tiller. How they’ll respond to him when he’s seen in a wider context is one of the imponderables: personally I think he’ll go down well, but we’ll soon know.
Roger - Dust down your old self-diagnostic subroutines old chap. Rebranding Brown isn’t going to happen. We’ve seen the ham-fisted attempts at that and it hasn’t smelt good.
Brown is who he is, for better or for worse. Personally, it’s the Tories who lower themselves in my estimation by harping on about how “Dour” he is, as if there weren’t more important things to worry about.
I can understand it when it comes to discussions on here, as it will make life harder for Brown to get his arguments across than it is for the blessed Cameron, but I feel that the Tory position is still weak enough to be blown away by a bold, hopeful and progressive government platform.
Unfortunately, all the signs are that it is going to be mired in the same mess that we’ve had ten years of already - ID cards, Trident renewal, backdoor hybrid privatisation, obeisance to the City of London…
What’s going to win any votes? Mrs Hubbard went to her cupboard and found it was bare…
Yes but Gordon Borwn is not the leader, that is important ,things will change if he gets the job. Those who do not want him will presently say Cameron or do not know, but once the leadership contest is over Labour voters will rally round their new leader, whoever he or she is.
These polls at the moment are illusionary.
18. Roger, may I refer you to reply given in the interesting legal case Arkell v Pressdram
I think the tories are selecting in Tiverton and Honiton tonight
Nick I don’t expect you to admit this but Labour MPs are resigned to the inevitability of GB’s succession rather than looking forward to it. There’s a lot of concern around. What went wrong; he seemed like an indispensable electoral asset in 2005; now he looks like a liability. I’ve heard the one about ‘people who really know him/her really like him/her’ many times. Usually it’s said about people whom the public stubbornly refuse to take to their hearts. There’s a touch of desperation about GB as he goes in for silly pr stunts which fail crashingly.
1 Lack of media coverage for a leader who came into post relatively recently. So I’m saying it’s lack of knowledge rather than real dislike.
33. Neil Parish MEP selected for Tiv & Hon..
18. I thought it was a great hatchet job on the government’s running of the NHS. He made mincemeat out of Hewitt, having a reposte already lined up for the excuses she came out with.
36. Thanks Jamie.
In the recent EPP controversy, was he pro staying in the EPP or among the ones who wanted to leave it?
34.”There’s a lot of concern around. What went wrong; he seemed like an indispensable electoral asset in 2005; now he looks like a liability.”
I think the much more media scrutiny and more negative coverage helped. Before 2005, Blair was the main target. Gordon had a much easier run. Now Blair is going and the so the attention concentrated on GB more and he got more exposure (his negative characteristics included) and attacks (or called it scrutiny if you prefer)
Gordon Brown is not himself alone; he stands for a specific grouping or faction within the Labour party itself - the trade unions, the left in the constituency parties and for his group in Parliament. He is the self-declared successor to John Smith as well, so he can be interpreted as a higher taxing, redistributive, micro manager of the UK internal economy with a very identifiable take on what is the public good, equality, the role of the state, the allocation of the tax take, and regional relations within the UK. His appeal outside this very Labour constituency is more restricted than the Blairite stance, less attractive to voters of no particular persuasion.
What he’s like personally is outside the experience of most people, but on the television (where he is seen rarely) he seems without charm, unsympathetic in his responses. He should be available to comment on all sorts of things at the moment but he’s not. So the impression isn’t being repaired.
Andrea just popped back in and I take no offence at all! On the contrary was worried I had upset you.
The MEP is very lucky to get that seat!
41- Oh no, Commentator, you have not upset me (you said Gordon has bad mannerism, not that I’ve it..actually I think)
37. Not the most eloquent repost to Roger at [32] though.
On topic. Why don’t voters like Brown? 1. Pensions 2. Tax. 3. He’s grumpy (don’t care whether he is or not, he looks it). 4. He’s increasingly false with his brand ‘relaunches’. 5. Lack of charisma. 6. Didn’t oppose Blair on Iraq then didn’t back him publicly either - coward. 7. Wrong sort of Scottishness - too much of a Calvinist streak. 8. Support for the underdog - Brown needs to earn the premiership, not have it given. 9. Voters are bored with him. 10. Silly bottom jaw thing.
40 That read as a very fair synopsis, Hatfield Girl.
I’ve heard he can be difficult to work with but then you would say that of an awful lot of people in High Office. It’s hardly the most crucial factor in a prospective PM.
My guess is that NickP is right; he’ll appear different once he’s in the top job. We’ll know soon enough.
22 Timothy
On page 2 of the ICM poll details, it seems to suggest that only 2/3 of the people that voted Lib Dem in 2005 would do so next time, and 28% of the 2005 Lib Dem voters would vote Conservative. Only 4% would switch to Labour.
It also seems to suggest that the Conservatives would win over 50% of the vote in the South.
Seems to be less an issue of Blair Tories, than the Lib Dem voters being won over, unless I am misreading things.
43 - David H - “37. Not the most eloquent riposte to Roger at [32] though.”
Actually, I thought it was mildly amusing - or it would have been from just about anybody but Barry. His credibility with me is just about zero, ever since his ‘Newsnight’ posting.
I address myself to him through you, David, because I find he never answers questions I put to him direct. In fact, I find he seldom, if ever, engages in any form of debate, which is a further reason for dismissing his views.
46. I must admit I laughed at it as well, but rather more because a parliamentary candidate was so touchy and couldn’t take a critical comment, preferring the kind of response a 15 year old would give once they’ve run out of arguments. Admittedly, it was well disguised abuse, but then if you don’t know what he was referring to then what’s the point, and if you do then he might as well have used the vernacular.
I agree with you re Hatfield Girl’s comments, which are very astute and much better argued than my list (though that was slightly tongue in cheek).
By the way HG, is the Hatfield in your moniker the London one? I only ask as I was at Durham University and I remember the Hatfield (College) girls there with awe and admiration.
Peter, the Newsnight programme was the first time that the general public had been appraised of the fact that there are potential skeletons in GBs cupboard; there is a second installment tonight on Newsnight by the same team, and as the coronation approaches I suspect that all sorts of worms will be turning. Tony and Cherie, and no doubt others,will be working hard to derail him.
I am sure that GB remains an “odds on” favourite, and I certainly wouldn’t bet against him, but I honestly don’t think that this is a one horse race.
If you want to debate,please feel free to post a comment on my campaign website
It’s the Don’t knows…
I’ve said for a long time that the biggest factor in these polls is that a proportion of labour supporters, quite understandably, say “Don’t know” when asked who they’d support IF Gordon brown was leader.
In the Yougov poll, it’s 10% of Labour supporters, in the ICM it’s 7% (12 people). Interestingly, 5% of people who said they were LDs now said they’d be DK if GB was leader, and in the yougov poll its and astonishing 25%.
Two very divergent analyses are possible.
The anti-GB argument would be that GB loses 7-10% of labour support and another 7-10% to the Tories compared to TB and the gains of LD supporters don’t make up enough ground.
The Pro GB line would be that a good proportion of the “GB-DKs” are answering a hypothetical question honestly and will likely come back when he’s actually PM, and that GB’s elevation also creates a major opportunity to win a segment of disaffected LDs, which will be enough to overturn the small swing to the Tories the data shows us happening.
The GB people would also argue that being PM gives him the bully pulpit to do things people like before calling an election.
Obviously I support the latter analysis!
40.”Gordon Brown is not himself alone; he stands for a specific grouping or faction within the Labour party itself …., the left in the constituency parties ”
with “the left in the constituency parties” do you mean the left of the political spectrum (which is in the CLPs) or the Left of CLPs (aka Labour Left)? If it’s the latter, I don’t think they’re fans of Brown
This is the place to debate, Barry. You are such a nakedly ambitious politician that you give the impression that the worst thing that could happen for you would be for Bedford Hospital to be saved as then you couldn’t run for office.
I respect a true politician like Nick Palmer a million times more than a posturer like you, who pretends to be above the fray but pushes and shoves and slams with the best of them.
1.
“Why don’t Labour voters like Brown?
Why don’t Libdem voters like Ming?”
Because Brown’s a minger and the gutter-press say Ming brown-noses him?
46. Barry makes one silly call and has zero credibility, Roger makes an incalculable number but he’s a good egg? You aren’t being very consistent Peter.
Commentator Who pushed your button?
51. When has Barry pretended to be ‘above the fray’??
Sorry - a minor clarification
These Polls suggest that GB hypothetically loses 5-7% to the Tories and 7-10% to Don’t Know, while gaining 10% of LDs and getting around 10% of LDs to switch to DK.
Your analysis of this data depends a lot on what you think those who say “Don’t know” when responding to a hypothetical mean..
55. Every time he attacks politicians as though he weren’t one, which is always.
I totally agree with PtP.
57. But he has announced himself to be ‘a politician’ from the very start, saying he planned to stand as a candidate at the GE. I really don’t see what you are getting so puffed up about.
Lib dems defectors splitting 2-1 in favour of Labour over the Tories feels right to me.
I still believe the Lib Dems will face a very strong two party squeeze on their vote. The churn at the next GE could be enourmous - with soft blair fans returning to the tories, but with former labour voters turned off by blair also returning “home”. Both parties will go hard for soft lib dem voters, so I’m clinging on to that 2-1 split for now thank you very much.
54.”Commentator Who pushed your button? ”
I’m innocent even if I’ve try to tease her/him earlier tonight
60. I wondered if Commentator was female for a while, too.
59 In which case what is going on with the ICM poll I referenced at 45 (see page 2 of the ICM poll for the details), whereby the 2005 Lib Dem voters split as follows:
Con 28%
LD 64%
Lab 4%
Oth 4%
This is before leaders are mentioned.
I would have expected a dyanmic similar to the one you project..
61. Commentator’s gender status is one of pb.com greatest mysteries….like the 3 Fatima Secrets
60 Andrea. “I’m innocent …..”
Andrea is the ghost of Lee Harvey Bunny Rabbit and I claim 5 conspiracy hutchs.
48 Barry - You miss the point, deliberately or not I’m not sure.
When you posted about the Newsnight programme, Yokel and I both asked you for more details, and with good reason. We have both bet on GB’s accession, heavily in my case. If you truly had advance notice of a seriously damaging news item, we were keen to know. You did not respond so I sat up for it. I expect Yokel did too. It turned out to be the dampest of squibs and your prediction that it would impact GB’s price was consequently unfounded.
I raised this with you a couple of times subsequently but received no reply. Are you surprised therefore that I described you as lacking in credibility?
On a political site, I would regard your views as vacuous. On a betting site, I would regard them as a menace. On a political betting site, I regard them as both.
I have no wish to visit your website, or to encourage your campaign.
64. Jack, I’m not the ghost…as Lee Harvey Bunny Rabbit is alive and among us
Communicate research tomorrow:
Con - 40
Lab - 29
LD - 17
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=438767&in_page_id=1770
47 - The same thought had occured to me when I saw HG’s name. Brings back memories of “Who the (heck) are Hatfield College” and wild nights on the Bailey. Before you ask I went to Cuth’s (2001-4).
66 Andrea. Who then is Jack Ruby Slippers ??
Note the poll also shows a massive two people who voted Tory last time plan to vote UKIP next time…confirming the theory put forward by the Lib Dem posters on this site that Cameron’s leadership would cause a haemorrhage of right wing votes to Farrago’s mob.
I wonder how long it will be before the pollsters stop seperating UKIP out from the ‘others’ total.
67. CR is a load of old tosh. I have said it frequently when it showed large Labour in leads. Say it again now.
47, Like many in Hatfield ( Herts) our fathers and grandfathers came from the northeast as skilled tradesmen to work in the aerospace industry (now gone from here); so roots in both Hatfields But from LSE, not Durham University.
50, I referred to those members of the CLPs who do not care for Blair’s wing; The organised far left also tends to go for Brown as the new leader, doesn’t it?
The best definitions of the various groups that make up the Labour party’s support is Christopher Logue’s poem ‘I Shall Vote Labour’ (written in 1966)
I shall vote Labour because
God votes Labour.
I shall vote Labour to protect
the sacred institution of The Family.
I shall vote Labour because
I am a dog.
I shall vote Labour because
upper-class hoorays annoy me in expensive restaurants.
I shall vote Labour because
I am on a diet.
I shall vote Labour because if I don’t
somebody else will:
AND
I shall vote Labour because if one person
does it
everybody will be wanting to do it.
I shall vote Labour because if I do not vote Labour
my balls will drop off. …
There is more but this comment is getting a bit long.
67. FWIW the changes compared to last month’CR are
Con + 6
Lab unchanged
LD -4
Scallywag
I hope my post at 65 explains the matter. If it does not, let me know and I will elaborate.
72 “I referred to those members of the CLPs who do not care for Blair’s wing; The organised far left also tends to go for Brown as the new leader, doesn’t it?”
Ah, ok. I would call it the “soft left”.
The far left is not generally fan of Brown, but there aren’t many left though.
In CR polls the Libdems seem to go up and down as a yo-yo
74. Not really. Barry made a silly comment about Newsnight, but the big surprise for me is how seriously you took it. He is an occasional poster with no record of making good betting calls. Far more idiotic predictions are made every day by more regular posters yet you appear to have zeroed in only on Barry.
JNN reporting a fresh ARSE poll of polls :
Con 38.4% .. Lab 32% .. LibDem 18.6% .. Others 11%.
68. Somewhat older (Mildert 1992-5), but a very enjoyable three years.
72. Ah - quite glad really. I was always a bit scared of Hatfield girls (as I know them); frighteningly confident.
CR poll. I have to agree with Commentator - 11 points ahead is very nice, but I’d rather have 9 from ICM.
And I agree with Commentator. If you are there Barry why didn’t you announce that you were standing as an MP instead of slagging your opponents off in the guise of an impartial doctor who wasn’t allowed to speak for fear of being fired?
Your web cam stunt was bizarre! Whispering into a web cam might make you feel like James Bond in Siberia but surely you realized that the significant thing was it’s transmission volume not the volume of your whisper!
71. Old tosh it might be, but you don’t have to wait long for the data!
http://www.communicateresearch.com/poll.php?id=96
Interesting poll, first look suggests that the Tory lead is driven by the likelhood to vote filter and labour identifuers saying they’ll stay at home. Not a good poll for Labour, even though the vote is unchanged.
A nugget of news- the poll says their are a lot more labour identifiers than Tories (278-229), it’s just that the Tories say they’ll vote and vote tory, and a lot of labour people say they’ll either stay at home or be unlikely to vote.
Oh, and it says labour would be be smart to introduce compulsory voting.
80, I refer you to answer 32 above
Sion Simon stuttering away on Newsnight so agressively is just painful. McDonnell is much more fluid. Crick again gives no credit to Guido.
77 Scally
He specifically stated that the programme would impact GB’s price and implied that he had advance knowledge of its content. We asked politely enough for him to elaborate but drew no further response.
There are other posters who do that kind of thing and they too draw criticism from the punters here but few have done it as irresponsibly. That’s why I ‘zeroed in’. I have though done much the same in the past with others - Guido springs to mind - but that’s not the point.
If Barry had explained himself, at the time or subsequently, I might have qualified my comments. He didn’t, so I will not.
Oh, and by the way Roger and Commentator, I don’t hide behind a nom de plume.
CR has found 9 SNP voters…5 men and 3 women…is the 9th a trans?
ConHome has given them a lot of ink when they showed Labour leads when every other pollster had us in the lead, will they do the same tomorrow? Hope they will.
Are CR still playing around with their methodology? Looks like it.
Interesting movements in the markets today.
Brown continues to drift as next Labour leader. Available at 0.27/1 on Betfair.
Further interest in Jack Straw. Now into 6/1 as next Chancellor. Also surprisingly strong market for David Miliband at 9/1. Will soon be worth selling Straw. Darling must be value if he drifts to 2/1.
Finally, the real value is in Segolene Royal. She has been gaining ground of late. A weekend poll had her a mere 1 per cent behind Sarkozy: 50.5 to 49.5 in the second ballot. I am backering her at 7/4 on Betfair in what will remain a two horse race. Remember Mitterrand in 1981: no enemies on the left, as we socialists used to say!
I’d never really seen John McDonnell before, but I thought he was pretty impressive on Newsnight. (Gordon’s little soldier Sion Simon was predictably hopeless.)
84. OK Peter we will have to agree to disagree. For me, the fact that Barry couldn’t elaborate on his claims should have been warning enough for you to ignore them. Alternatively, you might perhaps have questioned the notion that a complacent programme like Newsnight could have such a scoop. Barry’s comment for me was pure noise, which you get plenty of on this site, and part of being a punter (as you surely know better than most) is filtering the noise from the signal.
Please don’t tell me you adjusted your betting position in response to Dr.Monk’s prognostications too.
but is Scallywag the new name of Wag? Or are they 2 different people?
I’m not sure that it’s realistic for Blair to think he can hang around till June. He was a vote winner but he isn’t any longer. He is just a bed blocker and surely the party must realize it will remain in limbo until he goes. These polls must make MP’s twitchy and surely they realize that the longer this goes on the harder it will be for Gordon
91 “Barry’s comment for me was pure noise, which you get plenty of on this site, and part of being a punter (as you surely know better than most) is filtering the noise from the signal.”
Absolutely, Scally, and now I know Barry is just noise that can be safely ignored. As I said, he has zero credibility.
We can agree on that much, surely?
“but is Scallywag the new name of Wag? Or are they 2 different people?”
Interesting question while we are on the subject of identities. Scalliwag what was your username before this one?
91: I just googled for Barry Monk and found his 3 websites - all on blogspot. Only one has a significant number of posts, mainly about what a mess the NHS is in. As this is the centrepiece of his campaign, and he has asked us to go to his website to comment, it must be a thriving discussion board about the future of Bedford Hospital surely?
Well his last 20 posts have received a grand total of 14 comments, several of which are by himself! Benedict White for Prime Minister in comparison…
Yes, we are knocking a poster on here far more than we would others, but by setting yourself up as a parliamentary candidate, you are expected to come under scrutiny, and Dr Barry seems to be struggling despite having a popular issue at the forefront of his campaign.
Dr Barry isn’t concerned about anything other than self promotion. The Jade goody of Bedford Hospital!
97 It takes one to know one, I suppose, Roger.
Its good to see your programme is still working well, and that you are still doing such a great job for us.
Barry probably couldnt give a fiddlers what we think, as long as the good voters of wherever he is standing think soimething of him.
91 I’m not fussed about his politics, tpfkar, which may be commendable, though probably not. It’s when he tries to lead punters up the garden path that I object.
40&43. I still maintain that part of Brown’s previous popularity was down to being the chancellor in a benign economy in partnership with the more charismatic Blair in No10.
With the spotlight so firmly focused on Blair and a reasonable friendly media they seemed to be a highly polished double act.
Brown’s problems set in before the 2005 GE and his personal poll ratings have been sliding ever since. The economy and an ineffective opposition neutralised much of the damage initially done by Iraq to the government.
Brown really is the best example of the Peter Principle, and he just does not have the character to be a good PM. Now that he has come under much more intense scrutiny he is not winning over the public, his reputation for disappearing when the going gets tough is becoming almost legendary before he even moves next door and that will also effect public confidence in him.
His lack of ability when it comes to instinctively being able to react to sudden events quickly, a reluctance to tackle hard hitting interviews combined with having to be dragged about a week late if ever to come out batting for his PM or cabinet colleagues should worry his party. That combined with his willingness to engage with Murdoch or Dacre rather than the public shows someone who prefers to “control” the agenda rather than engage and persuade the electorate.
Blair was always the more political astute operator and the fact that he has hung on until both his and Brown’s credibility and popularity has waned does not surprise me. Brown may have written the scripts on domestic policy but it was Blair who delivered them, and I do not think that Brown has that flair or ability to wow the crowd even with an Oscar winning screenplay.
Like all great double acts the less talented one rarely goes onto greater success.
CR poll: I would agree that Labour voters are currently more unsure than Tories whether to vote. I don’t think this is a permanent state, though, so the poll is not as alarming as it would be if it showed the Tories winning over lots of Labour voters.
For those who’ve been calling for a more substantive Labour debate, there’s an Event organised by Charles Clarke with Alan Milburn on Wednesday morning, intended to kick off a wider debate.
Note to self: do not fall ill in Bedford.
Sorry, the capitalised “event” was a typo, not trying to make it sound especially epoch-making.
45 - Paul thanks. I hadn’t looked at the full figures, just the table Mike used. My thoughts were on the churn between the base figures and those with the named party leaders.
Your points are interesting as well. It appears that the strength and anti-Tory inclination of Lib Dems has kept Labour afloat, whilst it own vote fell heavily at the last election. With the Lib Dem voters now switching to the Tories Labour has a big problem. It’s own voters were lost quite some time ago and I don’t see how they can manage to persuade Lib Dem voters not to switch to the Tories.
Cameron appears a lot more trustworthy than Kinnock, so I don’t think a scare campaign will be enough.
Slightly O/T,has anyone else noticed the ‘Mail’ poll in tomorrow’s paper-splits 40-29-17 ;if one averages that with the Telegraph and Guardian’s polls last week,I am seriously feeling uneasy
Hi,just avaraged tomorrow’s Mail poll with last week’s ‘ DC v GB polls ‘in the Guardian and Telegraph-I used Anthony Wells seat guide and found:
(Average vote)
Conservative 41.67%
Labour 30.67%
LIberal Democrat 17.00%
Others 10.67%
Seat-wise-Conservative 348 seats
Labour 240 seats
Lib Dems 34 seats
Others 28 seats
Overall majority-Conservative 46 seats
As a reasobaly seasoned observer of political events in the UK,I will part with this:
In spring 1989 I was a naive 18 year-old student,of Econmics,Socilogy and UK politics-I was disillusioned with Mrs.T’s govt at that time( 10 years,pampering certain groups,out of touch,whatever.)
I remember watching the local govt elections on the 1 st Thusrday of May that year.By 1.30 am I was dismayed-this was still when 12 key marginals were used by the BBC,and whilst Southampton Test,only 30 miles up the road from me in Bournmemouth East would have gone Labour,the projection of an overall Labour majority of 4 did not exactly set my night alight!
The fact that,based on my amateurish average of 3 polls puts DC’s opposition at least 2,if not 3% swing points ahead (on strict basis of two-party swing ) sends me to bed soon seriously contemplating a Cameron govt..
104 This is why I found the churn from 2005 figures to be interesting. Conventional wisdom I suppose was that the tory growth was due to Blair tories and the Lib Dem decline due to anti Iraq wasr voters reverting to Labour. If (as the ICM figures suggest) the bulk of the movement is Lib Dems switching to the Conservatives, then you have a different set of implications. Obviously it would be a disaster for the LibDems, since most of their English seats are LD-Con, and they would lose most of them.
Its also not great for the Conservatives - most of the seats they need to win to gain a majority are currently Labour held. To overcome a 1,000 Labour majority in a seat, they would need to convert 500 Labour voters or 1,000 LibDems. If most of their growth in support is coming from flipping Lib Dems, then its much the harder way to win those Labour seats that they need, and to me makes a hung parliament more likely than the headline figures might suggest.
re 102. As a resident of Bedford I could not agree with you more Nick.
Advice to self. Don’t fall ill in Britain.