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Month: January 2007

Dunfermline: When the betting was last completely wrong

Dunfermline: When the betting was last completely wrong

Like the Casino decision a warning of the dangers of following the market After yesterday’s sensational news that the betting outsider, Manchester, had won the race for Britain’s new super casino I thought I would look back at the last time when the betting markets got it totally wrong. For next week, no doubt, Lib Dem will be celebrating the first anniversary of the party’s sensational victory over Labour in the Dunfermline by election which took place in the aftermath…

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Is a methodology change behind the CR poll shock?

Is a methodology change behind the CR poll shock?

Best to wait until we’ve seen how they’ve done the calculations There’s a poll with, apparently, some sensational figures from Communicate Research in the Independent this morning but judging by Andrew Grice’s accompanying report by and the quoted party shares there is something not quite right. The voting intention shares with changes on December are CON 34% (-2): LAB 29% (-8) LD 21% (+7). So Ming’s party is up half again on the figure it recorded just five weeks ago….

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As Sakorzy arrives to campaign – has Royal fluffed it?

As Sakorzy arrives to campaign – has Royal fluffed it?

Guest slot on the French Election by Tim Jones It’s a remarkable testament to London’s pulling power, French failings and how European politics are running to catch with the blasting open of the continent’s labour markets. Tonight, London is experiencing a first: an election rally by a French presidential candidate. It makes sense for Nicolas Sarkozy, the official candidate of the ruling UMP conservative coalition, to come looking for votes in a tight race. Out of a much larger number,…

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Is this the Tory right’s stick to beat Cameron with?

Is this the Tory right’s stick to beat Cameron with?

Why is UKIP failing to improve its poll ratings? By any standards it’s been a big month for the United Kingdom Independence Party and its outspoken leader Nigel Farage. For during January the party has seen more coverage than at any time since June 2004 when it pushed the Lib Dems into fourth place in the Euro Elections. For UKIP has taken on a role much bigger than just opposing Britain’s membership of the EU – it’s now become the…

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Was Alistair Campbell behind this move to get Gordon?

Was Alistair Campbell behind this move to get Gordon?

Who else would want to embarrass Brown over his support for Scotland? On the face of it yesterday’s Mail on Sunday story quoting from a 13 year old article that Gordon Brown had written about his support for Scottish football was just something to chuckle about. But on closer examination it looked more serious than that. For what could be more embarrassing than for Brown’s comments such as his saluting of the Scottish hooligans who tore up the Wembley turf…

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YouGov confirms the big Lib Dem recovery

YouGov confirms the big Lib Dem recovery

But the Telegraph describes a 7% Tory lead as “evenly joined” After last week’s ICM poll in the Guardian which had the Lib Dems moving up a massive five points to a 23% share there’s more good news for Ming Campbell’s party in this morning’s January YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph. These are the figures compared with the last survey by the pollster before Xmas. Con 38% (+1) Lab 31% (-1) LD 18% (+3). (Note the comparisons are with…

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Is this the face of a man who wants to carry on?

Is this the face of a man who wants to carry on?

How long will Tony be there? Sometimes the still photograph is much more revealing than the moving image. These are screen grabs that I took from Blair’s interview earlier in the day on BBC’s “The Politics Show”. Together they make a powerful combination. He looked at his most stressed when pressed on the dropping of the Saudi arms case investigation and, of course, when commenting on the handover. If you have got half an hour it is well worth watching….

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How’s Gordon going to lead a party that’s on the brink?

How’s Gordon going to lead a party that’s on the brink?

What’s the political impact of Labour’s cash crisis? Of all the stories of woe for Tony Blair and Labour in the Sunday papers this morning the one that seems to have the most long term significance is this in the News of the World – the first part of which is reproduced above. The story goes on to list the money that has to be paid back: “..£2.3MILLION to property developer Sir David Garrard in April, £1.5MILLION to Priory Clinic…

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