Is the Iraq debate encouraging punters to back the Chancellor? With Tony Blair preparing to face a difficult session in the House of Commons tonight on calls for an inquiry in Iraq the best betting price on Gordon Brown being Tony Blair’s successor has tightened to 0.35/1 – a level that it has been at only once before since David Cameron’s election as Tory leader on December 6th. The price has been moving in this direction for the past three…
Will today’s YouGov data give a better pointer to tactical voting? Detailed data from the October YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph, due out sometime today, should provide an indication of how tactical voting might impact on the next General Election. The poll, it will be recalled had a CON 46% – Lab 33% split to the question “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron…
> This is your chance to bet on whether Bush gets a bloody nose? In terms of global importance by far the biggest elections anywhere in the world take place across America next Tuesday. If the polls have got this right then the Republican grip on Congress is set to come to an end and there could be a spill over in British politics. For after winning back the White House in 2004 on what was the biggest day ever…
The illustration, with its imagery of the protests against the Iraq war, is the masthead from the campaign website of the only person so far to declare that he is standing for the Labour Leadership – the Hayes and Harlington MP and former Deputy to Ken Livingstone on the old GLC, John McDonnell. With much less being heard about a Reid or Johnson challenge the chances are that he could be the only alternative to Brown when next year’s race…
Why is Cameron going easy with Blair on the succession? The main political story in the Sunday Times this morning is of developments in the police “loans for peerages” investigation that could blight the final months of Tony Blair’s time at Number 10 and impact on his departure time-table. According to the paper Labour’s chief fundraiser, Lord Levy, “has implicated Tony Blair as the key figure in the cash-for-honours scandal, a well-placed source has revealed.” Levy is said to have…
Previewing the London Assembly Elections The London Assembly was established at the same time as the London Mayoralty. It is sometimes compared to the Greater London Council, although its powers are actually very limited by comparison. It has 25 members in total, of whom 14 are elected by first past the post, and 11 by a London-wide top up list, which allocates the remainder of the seats by a form of proportional representation. Each constituency covers two or three boroughs….
The Obama price tightens from 33/1 to 12/1 This is the cover of last week’s Time magazine which for seven days has been appearing on news-stands right across the US. This is the cover that has propelled the young first time Senator from Illinois into a position where the pundits are saying that only he can stop Hillary Clinton from securing the Democratic nomination for the 2008 White House race. This is the cover that prompted the questioning six days…
Who’s going to win the battle for Number 11? These are my thoughts on the subject from a betting perspective. Alistair Darling: The Trade & Industry Secretary is an arch Brownite, and has for a long while been one of the favorites to be the next Chancellor. Currently available on Betfair to back at 2.5/1, or to lay from 2.75/1. Darling could conceivably be the next Chancellor, but the current prices don’t tempt me either way at present. Ed Balls:…