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Month: December 2005

The Telegraph should believe its own pollster

The Telegraph should believe its own pollster

Gordon Brown is no longer the “grass is greener” alternative In its main editorial at the end of 2005 the Daily Telegraph speculates this morning about the possibility that next year could be a General Election year. It argues: “..Suppose that, at some stage in the coming 12 months, Tony Blair were to decide that he had had enough of the pettiness and contumely of domestic politics. Imagine that he were to seek a grander stage…that his place were to…

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Is Charles really running out of time?

Is Charles really running out of time?

Kennedy’s secret critics fail to impress punters The Lib Dem leader’s firm post-Christmas response to those private critics who say, amongst other things, that he does not have the charisma of a Cameron or a Blair has reinforced the doubts of reluctant punters in the Next Lib Dem leader market. For in spite of all the coverage there has been very little betting on his replacement. Betfair’s market has seen just £5,302 in matched bets with barely £800 going on…

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Punters bet on an early change-over

Punters bet on an early change-over

But are things really so bleak for “Teflon Tony” ? The chances of Tony Blair surviving until New Year’s Day 2008, as rated by gamblers on the “When will Blair go” markets, have again plummeted to the low 20s. They are not quite at the low they reached after November’s Commons defeat on the terror bill but they are getting quite near. But have gamblers got this one right? Given Blair’s stated intention of serving a full third term the…

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Miliband now 7.2/1 second favourite to be leader

Miliband now 7.2/1 second favourite to be leader

Will Labour elect Brown even if the opinion polls are against him? From the way punters are reacting on the betting exchanges Labour’s big beneficiary from the emergence of David Cameron is that other Oxford-educated 2001 Commons’ entrant, David Miliband – the Minister of State for Communities and Local Government. The chart showing the implied probability of success based on the best betting exchange price and illustrates the move to Miliiband in the past month. He’s now at 7.2/1 and…

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Predicting the most unpredictable year

Predicting the most unpredictable year

Who’ll be PB.C’s top forecaster of 2006? With so many question marks hanging over the UK domestic political scene it’s is going to be quite a challenge working out what is going to happen in the next twelve months. Will Blair and Kennedy go? Who will be the new leaders? Is the poll boost for Cameron’s Conservatives just a temporary thing or will it be sustained. All these issues and more are covered in our competition for the year which…

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Should Charles ask Santa for a bike?

Should Charles ask Santa for a bike?

Maybe riding to work will get his leadership back on track? After his skirmishes with leading party MPs over the the past two weeks Charles Kennedy knows that when he returns to Westminster in the New Year he will be under the most intense scrutiny. Can he save his leadership? With the less than ringing endorsements from the top two in the betting to replace him, Menzies Campbell (11/8) and Mark Oaten (3/1), Kennedy has to establish quickly that he’s…

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Ousting Blair – the unlikely partnership

Ousting Blair – the unlikely partnership

Can the Prime Minister survive 2006? It was Peter Oborne in the Spectator earlier in the month who observed that David Cameron and Gordon Brown had an extraordinary shared strategic purpose – they both want Tony Blair out as soon as possible. Brown’s desire to take what he regards as rightly his is probably the most documented political drama of modern times – and the longer he has to wait the greater the chance of something going wrong. Cameron’s desire…

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Osborne 5/1 to be next Chancellor

Osborne 5/1 to be next Chancellor

Brown succession worries cause Balls price to ease One market we have not looked at for some time is “who will succeed Gordon Brown as Chancellor?” In one of those quirks that sometimes happen on betting markets the close Tory colleague of David Cameron, George Osborne is now 5/1. For Osborne to be Brown’s successor Tony Blair has to continue right up to the General Election, the Tories have to win, and David Cameron has to decide to leave Osborne…

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