Should you be betting on an early departure? With more calls for David Blunkett to resign and after a week which has seen one Cabinet row after another spilling into the public domain the chances of Tony Blair serving a full third term must be slightly lower. On top of the spats over education policy, smoking, and the reform the benefit system, the attack on Blunkett is particularly damaging – because he is seen as being so close to Blair….
Punters believe that the 39 year old is a near certainty There’s been an overnight rush to back David Cameron on the betting markets following the publication of the first poll of Tory party members since the end of the MPs’ stage of the leadership selection process. The survey by ICM for the BBC’s Politics Show involved interviews with 215 party members who went for the younger man by more than three to one. The figures were Cameron 76%: Davis…
Amended Cameron 4-1 ahead amongst Tory voters The scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader – whether Davis or Cameron – is reflected in the October YouGov survey for the Telegraph showing that Labour’s lead is unmoved at 8 points over the past month. The shares are LAB 40: CON 32. As yet there is no figure for the Lib Dems available on-line. A consolation for the Tories is that it could be worse. At this stage after…
It’s 3/1 against him being indicted before December 31st Following tonight’s sensational news that Lewis Libby, chief-of-staff to Dick Cheney, has resigned after being charged with perjury the focus is now on Bush’s closest adviser and architect of last November’s victory, Karl Rove. He has not been charged but the case has not been closed. The Dublin-based international betting exchange, Tradesports, has a market on whether Rove will be indicted before the end of the year.The price is about 3/1…
Chances rated at lowest level since the General Election After a week which has seen highly publicised cabinet splits over education policy and smoking and a month that has been dominated by the Tory leadership race there’s been a move against Labour on the betting markets. The chart shows the implied probability of Labour winning most seats at the next General Election based on best betting prices. A month ago Labour was rated at 66-67% – this morning the figure…
How do they campaign now the media has lost interest A week ago Davis and Cameron were dominating the headlines and almost everything they said and did was being reported and analysed. Now it’s old news and it’s becoming harder and harder for either to get a message through. There will probably be renewed interest a week today when the two appear together on Question Time but it’s hard seeing that publicity boost to the contest lasting. It’s in this…
When are grads of other universities going to get a look in? The first stop on the David Davis campaign trail was to his old university – Warwick – a move designed to make the point that he was not part of the Tory Oxford “mafia” which has been dominating leadership battles for decades. A month ago when Cameron seemed out of the race it looked as though the Tory showdown would be between Clarke of Cambridge and Davis. Then…
Could NuLab be forced into playing a different tune? A key part of the success of Tony Blair’s New Labour has been the way it has occupied traditional Tory policy positions thus forcing the official opposition to the right. Time and time again the Tories have found themselves with little to say on an issue because Labour has adopted their position. This might be about to change. For the current debate over Labour’s education reform programme is giving a glimpse…